Friday

The Daily WAR (#07-05)

 
 
    The Holy See reiterates its firm conviction that the dignity of the person and the very nature of the quest for God require that all people should be free from every constraint in the area of religion. Society and the state must not force a person to act against his conscience or prevent him from acting in conformity with it. This said, the Holy See stresses that the right to religious freedom ought to be part of the juridical order and recognized as a civil right.
 
    The archbishop of Dublin told members of the UN that Pope Paul VI's encyclical "Populorum Progressio" is just as valid today as it was when written 40 years ago. Archbishop Martin made that statement at a UN side event co-sponsored by the Holy See's Permanent Observer Mission, noting that in "Populorum Progessio," Paul VI showed a "vision for the future that should lead beyond ideologies and power struggles toward the concept of what he calls authentic development." The Irish prelate spoke of the cultural and ecclesial context of 1967, the year the encyclical was written. Noting the various complexities of the time, he said that Paul VI focused on a key element of Catholic social doctrine: the primacy of the person.
    He also focused on the encyclical's evaluation of the model of capitalism emerging in the 1960s. "The thrust of Pope Paul's thought is that no economic model can be absolutizedCapitalism and a market economy have undoubted value, but they too must be written in the conditional." He said that Paul VI echoed the teaching of the Fathers of the Church in stressing the principle of the universal destination of the goods of creation. "This principle, which has been applied to themes like land reform, must today find its place in reflection on those common goods of our global world: the environment, water and above all to knowledge and intellectual property."
 
 
 
    A third German train drivers' strike in the space of a fortnight caused fresh havoc Thursday although the union ruled out continuing their action on Friday, the national railway Deutsche Bahn said. Regional lines in the eastern states and the western cities of Frankfurt and Munich were hit, while those in the northern cities of Hamburg and Berlin ran on a sharply reduced schedule.
 
 
 
    French commuters faced a second day of disruption on the rail network Friday, as unions discussed more strikes against government plans to reform pension privileges enjoyed by hundreds of thousands of public sector workers. After Thursday's day of action brought out some 75% of railway workers -- the biggest turn-out in many years -- serious problems persisted Friday on the Paris metro and regional train services.
 
    The EU has overnight agreed the precise text of its new "Lisbon Treaty." At around 02:00 local time this morning - following shorter-than-usual discussions - Portuguese prime minister Jose Socrates announced that a deal has been struck, describing it as "victory for Europe". "With this agreement we have managed to get out of stalemate...we will be ready to tackle the world's challenges." The new treaty will be formally signed by all European leaders in Lisbon on 13 December and subsequently go for ratification next year, with a view to coming into place by mid-2009, ahead of the next European elections.
 
    NATO has performed military exercises based on the scenario of a military conflict in an unnamed breakaway province in the Balkans. The breakaway province is clearly the predominately Albanian inhabited Serbian province of Kosovo. The exercises took place from September 27 till October 12, 2007 in the Adriatic Sea and Croatia according to the NATO Public Information Office in Naples, Italy. It is clear that NATO intends to settle the issue of Kosovo through military means.
(Economist: Shadows over NATO)
 
    President Putin today chastised the US over its policy in Iraq and Iran, and announced "grandiose" military plans, including development of a new nuclear weapon. In a nationally broadcast link-up with ordinary Russians across the country, Putin called the US intervention in Iraq a "dead end" and called on Washington to set a deadline for the withdrawal of troops.
 
 
 
    The Turkish parliament has granted the Prime Minister the right to order a military strike in neighboring Iraq. It's potentially a blank check for a new Iraq war - but for now, the war drums are a way to underline Turkey's demands.
 
    Ehud Olmert on Thursday night held talks in the Kremlin with President Putin, seeking to persuade him to back new UN sanctions regarding Iran's nuclear programme. Following Putin's own visit to Tehran this week, Olmert held what a senior Israeli official called "a last-minute, urgent meeting" in which Iran's nuclear programme was certain to be the central issue under discussion between the two men.
 
    Two bomb blasts last night ripped through huge crowds in the Pakistani city of Karachi gathered to welcome former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who had just returned after 8 years in exile. Up to 125 people are reported dead and 100 injured, but the toll could rise as police and rescue workers assess the scene. At this stage, no organisation has claimed responsibility. It cannot be ruled out that embittered elements of the army and/or PML (Q) were responsible for last night's bombings. The bomb blasts in Karachi are a reminder that Bhutto's return, far from bringing peace and democracy, is likely to open up a new chapter of political crisis and instability.
 
 
 
Wishful thinking...
    The result of Vladimir Putin's meeting with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at the Caspian Summit in Iran earlier this week is that there will be no "Operation Iranian Freedom" (or some equivalent thereof) in the remaining 15 months of this administration. A powerful Euro-Asian bloc, based on the Moscow-Peking axis that opposes American challenges along the Continental Heartland's outer perimeter, is now preempting threats to the existing balance in real time. Putin is effectively helping President Bush avoid an adventure that would bring ruin to all involved, save the promoters of an Islamic end-times scenario.
    The Declaration signed at the end of the summit commits the littoral states to a de facto non-aggression pact. It warns the outside powers to refrain from using the Caspian region for military operations or interfering in any other way, and supports the right of Iran to pursue nuclear technology for peaceful purposes. The entire Caspian region, including the convenient territory of Azerbaijan, is suddenly out of bounds for American military. It would leave Afghanistan and Iraq as the possible staging areas for American military operations against Iran. The fact that the US military options are suddenly limited is just one of the effects of Tehran summit.
 
    The Bush administration's shift from the military option of a massive strategic attack against Iran to a surgical strike against selected targets associated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, reported by Seymour Hersh in the New Yorker earlier this month, appears to have been prompted not by new alarm at Iran's role in Iraq but by the explicit opposition of the nation's top military leaders to an unprovoked attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
 
    Is a US military attack on Iran may be imminent? Both opponents and supporters of a military strike believe it is coming soon, based not only on official administration rhetoric and the observable preparatory movement of US military assets, but also on the White House's use of private sources to build a pro-war constituency among the American public. In recent months there has been a marked escalation of calls — by neoconservative think tanks, radio talk shows, and media organs closely allied to the Bush administration — for a massive pre-emptive US military strike on Iran. Some prominent spokesmen are openly calling for the US to use tactical nuclear missiles. Is this a spontaneous crescendo of popular support or a huge propaganda campaign initiated by White House spinmeisters?
 
    In an appearance on NBC's Today Show, Air America's Rachel Maddow suggested that President Bush's warning against allowing Iran to acquire nuclear know-how should not be mistaken for a promise that Republicans can be trusted to prevent WW3. "What he's saying is that WW3 is worth starting, if only over the issue of Iran's nuclear know-how -- not even over the issue just of them having weapons."
 
    If military action is undertaken against Iran, Israel won't be doing it alone, US Senator Norm Coleman told The Jerusalem Post Wednesday. "The reality is that Israel would have to have approvals and authorities. If something is taken, the United States is going to be part of that. We have to understand that. There is no saying, 'Israel did it.'"
 
 
 
    The Southeast's worst drought in more than a century is forcing parched states and communities into crisis measures to conserve water and fight for access to more. A region accustomed to plentiful rain from tropical storms and hurricanes is experiencing its 2nd straight year of less rain in the summer and fall.
 
    While national polls place him near the bottom of the field, impressive fundraising, Internet buzz and crowds of spirited followers have Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas, in unfamiliar territory. As his campaign gains traction, Paul faces a philosophical contradiction: Is he the principled agent provocateur, known as "Dr. No" on Capitol Hill, trying to bring about a grass-roots anti-big-government uprising in American politics? Or is Paul a Republican presidential candidate with a libertarian bent, seeking big money contributions to fund a traditional campaign? More important for Paul, can he be both?
 
    American websites have come under attack in China since President Bush met the Dalai Lama in Washington this week. Popular search engines are said to have been "hijacked" by computer hackers who had managed to redirect users to a Chinese website.
 
 
 
    US crude oil futures have hit $90 a barrel for the first time, setting a new high for the 5th time in as many trading days, as tensions in Turkey and the weakness of the dollar combine to drive up demand. The rally's momentum has been handed extra impetus by the slide of the dollar against most of the world's currencies, making oil cheaper to anyone outside the US. Many oil traders are now predicting that an oil price of $100 a barrel is just round the corner.
 
    The dollar has plummeted to all-time lows against both the euro and a basket of global currencies amid growing fears of a disorderly rout as the US property slump spreads to the broader economy. The growing belief the European Central Bank may keep tightening despite the credit crunch has caused traders to shift gear, renewing bets on the euro. But the surging currency has hit confidence in Europe, where industries in France, Italy and some German firms are warning of serious knock-on effects.
 
    The loose money bias of the world's central banks from 2003-2005 was the chief cause of the liquidity/credit bubble that peaked in early in 2007. This stimulus worked through the economy with a two year lag. It has since kicked into reverse. As French President Sarkozy said, the ECB had bailed out speculators, while refusing to help ordinary people with a rate cut. Much as I criticize Sarko, he may be right about that. The ECB has acted in this fashion to avoid a political crisis. It could not risk a Northern Rock debacle because that would raise the taboo subject of who bails out whom in Euroland. Would German taxpayers have to underwrite Spanish debts? This is where real trouble begins in Europe's fragile monetary union.
 
    Gold has roared to a fresh 28-year high of $760 an ounce on the fears of global currency disorder and a surge of buying by Japanese investors using exotic trading signals. The head of precious metals at UBS said the Japanese can be a major driver of the gold price once they step in. "Japanese buying can come out of the blue, but it is too soon yet to tell whether they are about to take over the gold market. When the Japanese public move in with reckless abandon, everybody else gets out of the way. They can be the last to join the rally." Rising inflation across China, India, the Middle East, Eastern Europe, and Latin America have all created the backdrop for a major move in gold. Citigroup said a global "reflation rally" caused by cuts in US interest rates could push prices above $1000 an ounce.
 
 
 
    Choosing 50 key dates from world history is a daunting task. No two people are likely to choose the same 50. Any list will prompt the response "why did you leave that out? Or put that in?" Important dates are not the same as well-known dates. Why, then, these dates and not 50 others? Human history is a vast and complex story, but human society has worked over the past 5,000 years only because of some key inventions and discoveries. That is why the wheel, the plough, the sail and the watch are there. Human societies have been held together by religion, which is why the major religious founders are here. Religion links the modern world with the past 2,000 or 3,000 years.
 
 
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