Friday

The Daily WAR (09-03)

 
 
    Thursday in the Vatican, Benedict XVI received the Letters of Credence of seven new ambassadors to the Holy See. He addressed the diplomats as a group before greeting them individually and handing each a written copy of a speech concerning the specific situation in his or her own country.
    "Your function as diplomats is particularly important in today's world, in order to show that in all situations of international life, dialogue must overcome violence, and the desire for peace and fraternity must prevail over the contrasts and selfishness that lead only to tensions, and the resentments that do not contribute to building reconciled societies."
 
    The newly elected president of the US bishops' conference says Benedict XVI's statement for the Jan. 1 World Day of Peace has an urgent message for the world. "Pope Benedict XVI's call for nations to show 'greater determination' for 'a progressive and mutually agreed dismantling of existing nuclear weapons' is urgent and should be of the highest priority for citizens of the world. His concern for the environment is also paramount."
 
    It may be overcast and rainy in Rome these days, but this Advent just keeps getting brighter. From the glorious opening of the season with Benedict XVI's new encyclical "Spe Salvi" (Saved in Hope), the wait for Christmas has taken on a greater meaning than the number of shopping days left. Last Thursday, Dec. 6, was the feast of St. Nicholas, bishop of Myrna, whose fame resonates in every corner of the world.
 
 
 
    A new study shows that nearly half of Germans see their country as a world power. But that shouldn't be seen as a sign of growing German nationalism, the report's author told DW-World and gave a different explanation.
 
German press on ...
    On Wednesday, right-wing populist Justice Minister Christoph Blocher was unceremoniously discarded by the Swiss parliament. On Thursday, he led his party into the opposition. Fifty years of consensus government has come to an end and commentators wonder what's next.
 
 
 
    A typical Protestant view of European religious history might go like this. In medieval times, the Roman Catholic church grew increasingly corrupt and impervious to criticism. Then came the Reformation, with its new breath of freedom and tolerance. After a brief fightback that culminated in the ghastly Thirty Years War in 1618-48, Europe moved smoothly towards the Enlightenment and today's ideal of secular tolerance.
    Most of this conventional picture is entirely wrong, as this splendid book by Benjamin Kaplan shows. Certainly, the medieval Catholic church continued to stamp heavily on heresy, but Enlightenment Protestants were often also deeply intolerant, not only of Catholics but also of each other. It took more than 150 years after the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 for most Europeans even to grasp the concept of religious tolerance.
    The main focus of the book is, however, on the regions of Europe that had the most mixed-up religious map of all, such as Switzerland, the Low Countries and, above all, the German principalities that made up the Holy Roman Empire. The empire soon adopted the curious and often cruel practice of Cuius regio, eius religio ("whose the region, his the religion"), under which a local sovereign chose his subjects' religion.
 
    The one-day signing ceremony in the Portuguese capital, Lisbon, by EU heads of government and their foreign ministers was a lavish, pompous and even garish affair—with the historic Jeronimo monastery transformed by blue backlights and giant TV screens to look like a Disney film set.
    The treaty/constitution was conceived of as a means of strengthening the EU as a trade and military bloc following the accession of 10 countries in 2004—mostly former Stalinist states in Eastern Europe, which have been followed by Bulgaria and Romania. Its goal is to enable the European powers to compete more effectively against their global rivals—particularly the US—in the economic and military arena. To this end, it champions economic measures that will hasten the destruction and privatization of what remains of Europe's once-extensive system of welfare provision and labour protections to facilitate the profit drive of the major corporations.
    It is this economic agenda—directed against the working class on behalf of the transnational corporations—and the political imperative of strengthening Europe's military and political influence globally that brought Merkel, Sarkozy, Brown, et al together in Lisbon. Merkel proclaimed the treaty as the "foundation for a new EU in the 21st century," but did not say what this new construct was. Portuguese Prime Minister Jose Socrates declared at the opening ceremony: "The world needs a stronger Europe," but did not say why.
 
    EU leaders said the Treaty of Lisbon would be the basis for a more modern and democratic Europe. But it remains to be seen if the reforms will meet with approval in the bloc's 27 member states. The reform treaty still has to be ratified by the bloc's 27 member states within a year to become binding international legislation.
    At the moment, it looks like only Great Britain could still cause problems. The euro-skeptics there are vehemently calling for a referendum. Prime Minister Brown wants to avoid one because he knows very well that his countrymen and women could reject the treaty. They [and the COG "prophets"] believe in a fairy tale of a European super-state that might be created by the treaty.

    But there is one consolation for euro-skeptics: for the first time, a treaty offers the possibility to leave the EU.

 
No silver lining...
    EU leaders are expected to offer Serbia a fast track route towards candidacy for EU membership. The plan is seen as a way of keeping the Balkans stable, with Kosovo set to declare independence from Serbia, which has already rejected the "trade-off". Kosovo's future is widely seen as the biggest test for EU foreign policy.
    The Serbian Foreign Minister said today that his country would not consider giving up Kosovo in exchange for speeding up the process towards joining the EU. "A trade-off is out of question."
 
    The question of whether Turkey should one day be allowed to join the EU was expected to dominate today's summit talks in Brussels about the bloc's long-term future. According to a draft text of the conclusions that prime ministers and heads of state were expected to reach, the Reflection Group would help "anticipate and meet challenges more effectively in the longer term (horizon 2020-2030)."
 
 
 
    In spite of longstanding denials by top officials here, the Israeli government in 2000 agreed to relinquish the Temple Mount to the Palestinians during US-backed negotiations, according to declassified documents made public today.
    The information comes as Prime Minister Olmert earlier this month denied talks started at November's Annapolis summit would lead to Israel giving up its sovereignty over the Temple Mount, while chief Palestinian negotiators tell WND the Jewish state already agreed to forfeit Judaism's holiest site to a coalition of Arab countries.
 
Emerging threat analysis...
    Turkey remains deeply concerned by ongoing developments in neighboring Iraq and opposes any division of the country. Since the US invasion of Iraq in 2003, the Kurds in Iraq have gained greater autonomy for the region, although they remain - at least for the moment - attached to the rest of Iraq.
    Turkey has accused Iraqi Kurds of harboring members of the PKK, with whom they sympathize. "We will not tolerate the use of Iraqi soil to launch attacks against Turkey. Expect words to be followed by deeds."
 
    The US envoy to the UN on Thursday threatened Sudan with additional sanctions if it continued to drag its feet on allowing the deployment of 26,000 UN-AU peacekeepers in Darfur.
 
    India on Thursday test-fired its surface-to-air nuclear-capable missile, Akash, from a military base in the eastern state of Orissa, news reports said. The multi-target missile, which has a range of 25 kilometres and is capable of carrying a nuclear warhead of 50 kilos, was test-fired from a mobile launcher. Akash, which means "sky" in Hindi, was targeted at a flying object using a Pilotless Target Aircraft as a support system.
 
 
 
    Iran scholar Trita Parsi has been arguing for a while that Iran is a rational, pragmatic actor in the Middle East, not an uncontainable rogue state on an unswerving path to nuclear holocaust, as the country is so often portrayed.
 
    We can all sleep easier today. Any plans President Bush may have had to attack Iran were dealt a major blow by the news that Iran stopped trying to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. While few things are impossible, it will now be very difficult for Bush to send the bombers into Iran and wreak the death and destruction that would necessarily follow.
    Even the hawkish Robert Kagan, former foreign-policy advisor to Vice President Cheney, had to concede, "The Bush administration cannot take military action against Iran during its remaining time in office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to an extremely provocative Iranian action."
    The latest assessment of Iran's nuclear ambitions is a stunning development. The right-wing microphone-wielding fantasy warriors all but accuse the intelligence agencies of treason, but that is just their standard line.
    Characteristically, Bush is not letting facts get in his way. He says Iran remains a threat, while claiming that the assessment vindicates his policy. How's that again?
 
    With the Dec. 3 publication of a completely unexpected declassified National Intelligence Estimate, a consensus has emerged that war with Iran "now appears to be off the agenda." Indeed, Iran's president claimed the report dealt a "fatal blow" to the country's enemies, while his foreign ministry spokesman called it a "great victory." I disagree with that consensus, believing that military action against Iran is now more likely than before the NIE came out.
    The NIE's main point, contained in its first line, famously holds: "We judge with high confidence that in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program." . French and German leaders snubbed it, as did NATO, and even the IAEA expressed doubts. British intelligence believe its American counterparts were hoodwinked, while Israeli intelligence responded with shock and disappointment.
    In short, with Option #1 undermined and Option #3 unacceptable, Option #2 – war carried out by either U.S. or Israeli forces – becomes the more probable. Thus have short-sighted, small-minded, blatantly partisan intelligence bureaucrats, trying to hide unpleasant realities, helped engineer their own nightmare.
 
    The US said Thursday it will continue to work with allies and partners on a 3rd UN Security Council resolution on Iran's nuclear programs. "Our allies, the P-5+1 continue to work forward on a 3rd resolution for the UN Security Council. The ball is in Iran's court in order to come forward and be very truthful about its (nuclear) program or not."
 
 
 
    Where is Congress? It's way past time for members to stand up. Historic matters are at stake. The Constitution is being trampled, the very form of our government is being perverted, and nothing less than American democracy itself is endangered - a presidential coup is taking place.
     While the BushCheney regime continues to establish a supreme, arrogant, autocratic presidency in flagrant violation of the Constitution, members of Congress largely sit there as idle spectators - or worse, as abettors of Bush's usurpation of their own congressional authority.
 
    Bush has issued a directive that would place all governmental powers in his hands in the case of a catastrophic emergency. If a terrorist attack happens before the 2008 election, could Bush and Cheney use this to avoid relinquishing power to a successor administration?
 
    A decade and a half ago the world went from bipolar to unipolar, because one of the poles fell apart: The SU is no more. The other pole – symmetrically named the US – has not fallen apart – yet, but there are ominous rumblings on the horizon. The collapse of the United States seems about as unlikely now as the collapse of the Soviet Union seemed in 1985. The experience of the first collapse may be instructive to those who wish to survive the second.
(Also: Part 2 and Part 3)   
 
    By the late 18th century, Britain was no longer a theoretical concept but an everyday reality. Scotland had prospered spectacularly under the Union and was now unrecognisable as the poverty-stricken country that had grudgingly signed the treaty in 1707.
 
    The last decades of the 19th century saw massive political disruption over Irish Home Rule. While Scotland remained a satisfied partner in the Union, some adjustments were made to the apparatus of government.
 
 
 
    Never before have the central banks of North America, Europe and Britain acted together as such a unified phalanx, but never before have trans-Atlantic credit markets seized up with such violent effect. "This is a drastic action. The central banks want to place a fire-break to stop credit tensions spilling over into the broader markets and becoming the catalyst for a global economic crunch."
    "A co-ordinated move like this has the 'Wow factor. But there's a lot of scepticism over whether this will be enough medicine to end the credit crisis. Is it already too late?"
 
    In the annals of American-style "capitalism," this Tuesday resembled an episode from The Twilight Zone. For starters, the country's monetary central planner – the Bernanke Fed – dropped rates 1/4%. Investors were miffed, hoping for even more candy. As the kiddies came down from their 1,000 Dow point sugar high of the last 2 weeks, their mood was agitated and whiny. The Dow dropped 300 in less than 2 hours.
    To paraphrase H.L. Mencken, "Fed intervention in the financial markets is the art and science of running the circus from the monkey cage." Beam me up, Scotty. There are still no signs of intelligent life.
 
    It seems that the rejection of the US dollar has become a fashion trend in modern-day business relations. Several major oil and gas exporters have recently announced their plans to use a different currency in their deals with other countries. Officials of Russia's natural gas giant, Gazprom, voiced an idea to use rubles in gas trade. "We consider the idea of selling our resources for rubles to be quite possible."
    Russia's use of rubles in international deals would create a demand on the national currency abroad and that, in its turn, would have two favourable consequences.
 
    On December 8, Chinese and French news services reported that Iran had stopped billing its oil exports in dollars.
    (Americans might never hear this news as the independence of the US media was destroyed in the 1990s when Rupert Murdoch persuaded the Clinton administration and the quislings in Congress to allow the US media to be monopolized by a few mega-corporations. The US media has no investigative capability and serves up the lies that serve short-term corporate and political interests. If it were not for the Internet that provides Americans with access to foreign news sources, Americans would live in a world of perfect disinformation.)
    Iran's oil minister declared: "The dollar is an unreliable currency in regards to its devaluation and the loss oil exporters have endured from this trend." Venezuela's Chavez, survivor of a US-led coup against him and a likely target of a US assassination attempt, might follow the Iranian lead. Also, Russia's Putin, who is fed up with the US government's efforts to encircle Russia militarily, will be tempted to add Russia's oil exports to the symbolic assault on the dollar.
    The assault is symbolic, because the dollar is not the reserve currency due to oil exports being billed in dollars. It's the other way around. Oil exports are billed in dollars, because the dollar is the reserve currency. If Iran and other countries do not want dollars, they can exchange them for other currencies regardless of the currency in which oil is billed.
 
    Countrywide Financial said on Thursday forclosures had doubled in November, while late payments continued to rise amid the US subprime housing crisis. Mortgage load fundings and daily loan applications also declined year on year, said the biggest US mortgage lender.
 
    Once upon a time, a house was just the place you lived. But once The Maestro (a.k.a. Alan Greenspan) stepped on the monetary gas back in 2001 and 2002, houses went from being shelter and expenses to investment vehicles.
    But when it comes to housing it's not a man's world. Women dominate housing decisions. There are not millions of guys out there pining for new homes. But, there are millions of women who are; the only ones who aren't just moved into a new home. But even these women will be thinking about their next dream home within 30 days. The ones with good sense will wait a while before they say, "Honey, in our next house, I think we should get ..."
    Most working stiffs don't trade assets for a living. They trade their time and talent for a paycheck. There are very few people mentally equipped to buy and sell investments profitably. And now houses are investments. But people need reminding that homes aren't investments. Investments pay you money every month. Homes are just the opposite – money pits.
 
    Ever since I had my epiphany and realized that Peter Schiff had been right about the imminent collapse of the US dollar, I've been meaning to write a review of his book (Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse).
    When the stock market became increasingly volatile, I thought, "I'd really better write that review soon!" But the final straw came today, when I read that wholesale prices in November rose at the fastest rate in 34 years. LRC readers need to learn how to protect their wealth, while they still have some left.
    Schiff is a staunch proponent of honest commodity money. He believes that the US dollar is poised for a significant fall versus other currencies but in particular against real goods and services.
 
    As a central villain in the famous book Barbarians At the Gate, Henry Kravis has become one of the world's richest mavens of private equity -- the Wall Street sector that buys up companies, breaks them apart and sells their assets. In 2006, Kravis made $450 million, or more per hour ($51,000) than the average American household makes in a year.
    Brutes like Kravis haven't amassed such treasure by playing nice. During their takeover rampages, they often crush workers and leave communities for dead. And now, as we've seen over the last month, when the tax man comes calling, these barbarians start taking hostages.
 
 
 
Chocolate?!...
    Some people can live without sex for many months. Others start climb up the wall after weekly abstinence and say that life is nothing without sex. Why is it so? Is it possible for human beings to replace sex with anything else?
 
 
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