At the beginning of a New Year, I wish to send my fervent good wishes for peace, together with a heartfelt message of hope to men and women throughout the world. I do so by offering for our common reflection the theme which I have placed at the beginning of this message. It is one which I consider particularly important: the human family, a community of peace.
Born of a providential intuition of Pope Paul VI and carried forward with great conviction by my beloved and venerable predecessor Pope John Paul II, the celebration of this Day of Peace has made it possible for the Church, over the course of the years, to present in these Messages an instructive body of teaching regarding this fundamental human good.
Foreign policy dominated the first half of Angela Merkel's term as chancellor; raw politics are likely to overshadow the second. A series of state elections starting in January will test the popularity of the 3 parties in the country's "grand coalition" government and shape their strategies for national elections.
His European friends will find that Sarkozy can still be a prickly partner. He will rail against the European Central Bank's monetary policy. He will contest negotiations over Turkish entry. He will ruthlessly pursue French interests on industrial matters, on which he is an unapologetic interventionist. This will particularly test his ties with Germany, and exasperate Brussels.
Within the EU, most serious disputes usually boil down to one of three things: a fight about money, an argument over the distribution of power, or an external crisis. The EU will begin 2008 facing a tricky external crisis, in the former Yugoslav province of Kosovo, which is set to declare unilateral independence from Serbia, or something very close to it. EU governments will be divided over recognising the fledgling nation.
Slovenia assumed the rotating presidency of the EU at the stroke of midnight - with Kosovo and ratification of the new constitutional treaty at the top of its agenda.
Slovenia will become the first former communist country to take charge of the EU today with the aim of ending the "Yugoslav crisis" that led to its creation 16 years ago. The tiny Eastern European country takes on the 6-month presidency, giving it power over the EU's priorities, just as the Balkans threatens to flare up again with a declaration of independence by the Serbian province of Kosovo early in the new year.
The country of 2 million people admits that it lacks the experience and personnel of bigger EU countries and has been receiving advice and diplomatic support from France, the next in line for the presidency. This has led to accusations that President Sarkozy will control Europe's agenda for a full year — helping him to push ambitions such as building the EU's defence capability, over which he is at odds with British policy of concentrating on NATO.
By March 2008 Russia will have a new president and parliament. But the power will stay in the hands of the same man: Vladimir Putin. After much speculation, Mr Putin has decided to hang on to power one way or another.
To divert attention from problems, the Kremlin will try to find enemies both inside and outside the country. The number of "extremists" persecuted by the security services will increase. To justify its hard line, the Kremlin will call for national unity in the face of a growing threat from the West. Nationalism, already strong, will become the dominant force in Russia—indeed, the Kremlin will adopt it as its main policy. In the process it risks creating a monster it will be unable to control.
Prime Minister Olmert signalled today that Israel might have no choice but to agree to divide Jerusalem in a future peace deal with the Palestinians. "The world that is friendly to Israel ... that really supports Israel, when it speaks of the the future, it speaks of Israel in terms of the '67 borders. It speaks of the division of Jerusalem."
Damaged interests in Africa and having Livni declared persona non grata - hours after Egypt's foreign minister threatens to use diplomatic muscle against Israel, a senior diplomatic source tells Ynet exactly what kind of an impact Jerusalem can expect.
Egypt wields considerable influence in numerous countries all around the world and has the capability of using that power to damage Israeli interests, said the diplomatic sources, particularly stressing Cairo's sway over the continent of Africa.
A US diplomat in Sudan has died of his injuries following a shooting in the capital, Khartoum. The victim was an officer with the US Agency for International Development. It is not yet clear whether the attack was politically motivated, as crime is fairly high in the city. The shooting happened the day after a joint AU-UN force took over peacekeeping duties in Sudan's war-torn Darfur region.
Benazir Bhutto may have been Pakistan's last chance for peace. Her assassination threatens to plunge the country even further into chaos and violence - with potentially dire results for the rest of the region and the world.
(Also: Machiavellian Musharraf)
Now we are expected to believe al-Qaeda, appearing out of the mist of amnesia, is a portentous threat to the poor people of Pakistan, as related by the premier propaganda sheet, the New York Times. Excuse me, but al-Qaeda, the database and perennial boogieman, has always been a "Pakistani phenomenon," that is with the good grace of the CIA and MI6, with a bit of collaboration from the Mossad and German intelligence.
For years, Western analysts have struggled to understand the inner workings of Iran's leadership. To many, it is a government tightly controlled by the Shiite Muslim clergy. But the power of the clerics has steadily eroded. Increasingly, power is distributed among combative elites within a delicate system of checks and balances defined by religious as well as civil law, personal relations and the rhythm of bureaucracy.
Concentric circles of influence and power that emanate from the supreme leader include the clergy, government and military officials -- and at their farthest fringes, militiamen and well-connected bazaar merchants -- altogether perhaps 15% of Iran's 70 million people. Even the man regarded in Iran as the highest-ranking cleric in Shiite Islam finds himself constrained and challenged.
Those inside Iran's circle of power operate according to unique rules. "It is not a democracy or an absolute totalitarian regime," he said. "Nor is it a communist system or monarchy or dictatorship. It is a mixture."
Iran's former top nuclear negotiator says Tehran is ready to cooperate with Egypt to acquire peaceful nuclear technology. He told a press conference in Cairo that Iran would be ready to help Egypt with its nuclear program within the framework of international regulations and under the supervision of the IAEA.
Russia says sanctions are not an efficient measure against any country pursuing an independent policy toward international regulations. "We have disagreements with the US on certain quite important issues. However, even now, after the intelligence services made this report, the US hasn't changed its attitude toward Iran."
Love him or hate him, George Bush will be president for the whole of 2008 and the first 20 days of 2009. On the domestic front, where nothing can be done unless White House and Congress agree, the gridlock will be almost total. American foreign policy could potentially be more interesting. Iraq and Iran will overhang all other areas of foreign policy.
But it is Iran that may hold the key to how the last Bush year will unfold. The administration has worked hard on a multilateral diplomatic approach that has borne no fruit. It remains quite plausible that America will attempt unilateral military action in 2008, which would set back its relations with most of its allies significantly.
Paranoid Protestants Practicing Politics...
I believe 2008 is the year Christians take back America. It is the year we recapture the Supreme Court, the year that brings the slaughter of the innocent to a long-awaited end, and the year marriage and our religious freedoms are once again protected. Make no mistake: The leadership and organizational strength of evangelical Christians will soon determine the next leader of the free world. And I have a very good feeling about what they're going to do.
You don't have to be a Nazi. You can just be, well, a sheep. Our Founding Fathers were not oblivious to this; thus, James Madison: "I believe there are more instances of the abridgement of freedom of the people by gradual and silent encroachments by those in power than by violent and sudden usurpations. ... The means of defense against foreign danger historically have become the instruments of tyranny at home." We cannot say we weren't warned.
Wars have always been the most important occasions for the introduction of new forms of taxation. One way to capture more revenue is to reduce tax evasion by seizing the people's earnings before the earners ever lay hands on them. This procedure has come to be known as tax withholding at the source, or simply withholding.
The withholding system has remained in effect continuously ever since 1943, even though the war that prompted its creation ended 62 years ago, and the system's perpetuation has contributed greatly to nourishing the postwar Leviathan state. "Withholding is the paramount administrative mechanism that since 1943 has enabled the federal government to collect, without significant protest, sufficient private resources to fund a vastly expanded welfare state."
Oil prices fell slightly Monday, marking a quiet end to a record-breaking year, although rising demand and geopolitical instability are expected to keep upward pressure on energy costs early in 2008. "There's a good chance this week that we'll see some record highs."
Crudely put, the fate of the American economy next year will be determined by 3 F-words: foreclosures, foreigners and the Fed. Over the coming year things will get worse (and) there are plenty of reasons to worry. Tighter credit and falling house prices will prove a poisonous combination.
The weakest borrowers will simply be unable to borrow and spend as before. Even those who do not face a credit crunch will feel poorer and so spend less. The spectre of weaker consumer spending and tighter credit will weigh on firms' willingness to create jobs and invest. In other words, you have more than enough ingredients for recession.
(Also: The storm to come)
Investors will also be on the lookout for one of Nassim Taleb's black swans (extreme, unpredictable events), although by definition these cannot be foreseen. A military strike against Iran is not really in the black-swan category, since it has already been widely discussed, but it is hard to believe that the prospect is priced into financial markets. The global economy has coped admirably with oil at $70 and even $80 a barrel; whether it could sustain $100 a barrel for very long (as might happen if supplies from the Gulf are interrupted) is another matter.
(Also: Back to basics)
From the Sydney harbour, to the Champs Elysee in Paris and New York's Time Square, millions of revelers ushered in 2008 at iconic landmarks across the world. But security fears dampened festivities in some parts.
(Also: World welcomes new year)
(Also: 2008: The year in preview)
(Also: 2007: The year in review)
(Also: 2007: 20 annoying thins about it)
[WAR: "The New Year is an event that happens when a culture celebrates the end of one year and the beginning of the next year. (January 1st is) the first official day of the year in the Gregorian calendar used by most countries." (Wiki). So are most countries using the Gregorian calendar because of religious reasons? No, the only reason that most countries have adopted the GC is because of commerce - buying and selling. And the ultimate reason that you use it is so that you can also be able to buy and sell. So what is one to do about it?...]
The culture wars that have dominated American politics are gradually going global. That is partly because politics in many countries is following the American model. With most of the big economic debates settled, politics is focusing on cultural issues—such as the importance of the family in society. That is giving a fresh role to the West's traditional cultural warrior, the Catholic church, but also to younger evangelical outfits, many of them American imports.
Even the world's best brains have to admit to being wrong sometimes; leading scientists respond to a new year challenge.
A disturbed night's sleep may increase the risk of developing diabetes, US research has suggested. The US team discovered that volunteers who were roused whenever they were about to fall into the deepest sleep developed insulin resistance. Previous studies have shown an association with diabetes and a lack of sleep. It is also already known that the deepest sleep, known as slow-wave sleep, is associated with changes that affect metabolism.
Sun's analemma and how to make a calendar
If you started tonight – and watched the sunsets for an entire year, always being careful to watch from exactly the same location – you'd find that the sun creates figure 8 in the sky near the horizon.
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