Tuesday

The Daily WAR (10-19)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
    The Roman Rota should be increasingly characterized by unity, since the application of law in diverse cultures can tend to become distant from Church teaching, Benedict XVI says. He  noted that due to the universal nature of the Church and the diversity of juridical cultures in which it operates, "there is always a risk of the formation of 'sensim sine sensu' [local forms of jurisprudence], ever more distant from the common interpretation of positive laws and even from Church doctrine."
 
    On Monday morning, Benedict XVI received participants in an inter-academic conference entitled "The changeable identity of the individual", promoted by the "Academie des Sciences de Paris" and by the Pontifical Academy of Science.
    "Human beings have the specific ability of discerning what is good. In our own time, when the progress of the sciences attracts and seduces for the possibilities it offers, it is more necessary than ever to educate the consciences of our contemporaries to ensure that science does not become the criterion of good, that man is still respected as the centre of creation, and that he does not become the object of ideological manipulation, arbitrary decisions, or abuses".
 
    Mardi Gras, Fasching, Carnival. No matter what you call it, the party season leading up to Lent -- 40 days that Catholics traditionally spend fasting in preparation for Easter -- has given rise to some of the best parties and wackiest traditions in the world. This year Ash Wednesday, the beginning of Lent, is on Feb. 6th in the 10 days between then and now, Carnival-goers will pursue all manner of debaucherous fun from Bavaria to Brazil.
 
 
 
    Most countries celebrate the best in their past. Germany unrelentingly promotes its worst. The building of monuments to the Nazi disgrace continues unabated. "Where in the world has one ever seen a nation that erects memorials to immortalize its own shame?" asked the former Israeli ambassador to Germany. "Only the Germans had the bravery and the humility."
    [WAR: This national characteristic is from their Assyrian ancestors in Nineveh: "The Ninevites believed God. They declared a fast, and all of them, from the greatest to the least, put on sackcloth. When the news reached the king of Nineveh, he rose from his throne, took off his royal robes, covered himself with sackcloth and sat down in the dust. Then he issued a proclamation in Nineveh: 'By the decree of the king and his nobles: Do not let any man or beast, herd or flock, taste anything; do not let them eat or drink. But let man and beast be covered with sackcloth. Let everyone call urgently on God. Let them give up their evil ways and their violence.'" (Jonah 3:5-8)]
 
    Germany's ruling parties faced tough talks on Monday on who will rule the western state of Hesse after an election in which Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservative Christian Democrats suffered heavy losses.
    Finely-balanced results for 3 smaller parties mean it is unclear whether the CDU or SPD will be able to lead a coalition in Hesse, and the haggling is likely to poison the atmosphere further in their fractious federal coalition government.
    Senior figures from both regional and national parties meet on Monday to thrash out what to do. Neither party is willing to concede defeat and negotiations could last weeks.
 
    The only clear winner in Sunday's German regional elections is the country's (very) Left Party. The Left Party, a hodgepodge of former East German communists and disaffected Social Democrats, managed for the first time to get into parliament in large West German states.
    Merkel hasn't properly tried to sell the public on Germany's remarkable economic recovery, which comes courtesy of the limited reforms implemented in the recent years. Into this political vacuum stepped former Communists.
 
Sign of the end?...
    Germany seems to betray its favorite beverage in favor of juices and bottled water. The Federal Statistics Office noticed that the reason was a high demand for fruit juices, soft drinks and other nonalcoholic beverages.
 
 
 
    Will Spain hold together, or will separatist tendencies gradually cause its structure to loosen until some regions finally secede? More than half a millennium after Catholic monarchs Ferdinand and Isabella laid the foundation for the political unification of Spain, the question remains on top of the political agenda. The roots of separatism lie in Spain's linguistic, geophysical and historical variety. Spain is today divided into 17 regions with varying degrees of self-government
 
    "The end of 2007 put on the agenda more clearly the hypothesis of secession ... Nobody thought it would come to this almost cataclysmic point. There's a very marked separation in culture, politics, education - fewer and fewer Dutch-speakers understand French, and Dutch is not making substantial progress among French-speakers. In effect, we have two communities living in parallel."
 
    Less than one year from now, the European Union will choose its first long-term president. Tony Blair appears to be the front-runner right now, but a number of senior statesment have emerged as viable candidates.
    Blair is said to have a good shot, and he has powerful friends. President Sarkozy has thrown his support behind Blair. But numerous Social Democrats and most Christian Democrats, along with Chancellor Merkel, aren't as impressed.
 
    The European Parliament is starting to question the make-up of the planned EU diplomatic service, believing it risks changing the nature of the Union to favour larger member states. The service is meant to give some clout to the post of foreign minister and due in place at the beginning of next year.
    But MEPs fear that the service could become a body that is essentially run by large member states, and where the European Commission and smaller countries are sidelined.
 
    Without ensuring its energy security, Europe's ability to be a serious global player is at risk. The answer to the question "is Europe ensuring its energy security?" is negative. If current trends continue, Europe will be more energy hungry and more dependent on unreliable suppliers.
    On the other hand, attempts to build alternative energy supply routes for European markets face opposition by Russia. Without ensuring its energy security, Europe will not have enough tools to be a serious global player, because energy matters are very much intermingled with political, economic, and military issues.
 
    The European Union's enlargement chief urged the bloc to sign a pact with Serbia on closer ties before next Sunday's presidential runoff, but at least one EU country opposed such a move.
 
    Russia warned the US and EU on Monday that it would take a series of unidentified measures if Serbia's breakaway province of Kosovo unilaterally declared independence. "Russia's Foreign Ministry has prepared a whole host of steps and measures. These measures fully accord to our position on independence for Kosovo."
 
Yes!...
    The "Kosovo precedent" forms Russia's most vehement objection to Western recognition of the province's independence, but also its biggest threat. Separatist states in the Caucasus, taking their cue from Kosovo and bolstered by Russia's declarations, look set to make good on Russia's warnings that events in Kosovo will set off a "chain reaction."
 
    Gen. Yuri Baluyevsky, Chief of Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, issued a direct warning to Western governments on Jan. 19, that Russia reserves the right to conduct preventive war, including the use of nuclear weapons, if the sovereignty of Russia or its allies is under immediate threat.
    The General's sharp words came on the eve of Presidential elections in Serbia; the threat of a unilateral declaration of independence by the Serbian province of Kosovo poses an immediate threat to Russian relations with Europe and the US.
    But the Kosovo provocation is only one of a series of aggressive efforts by Western nations, led by Great Britain, to "cut Russia down to size," if not destroy the re-emergent nation.
    While Lavrov did not discuss the onrushing global financial collapse in any depth, he did cite "the inseparability of security and development in a globalized world." The foreign minister's warning about "breakdowns in world affairs" in 2008 clearly reflects Russian concerns about the potential spread of chaos across Eurasia and around the world.
 
 
 
    Who has controlled the Middle East over the course of history? Pretty much everyone. Egyptians, Turks, Jews, Romans, Arabs, Persians, Europeans...the list goes on. See 5,000 years of Middle East history in 90-seconds.
 
    The Olmert government is postponing talks with the Palestinians about the future status of Jerusalem. "The issue of Jerusalem is very sensitive. It is better to begin with issues that we have a chance of reaching understandings over than to begin with issues that encounter intense opposition at the outset."
 
    Comments by a US general on British policy in Afghanistan have once again brought to the fore tensions between the major occupation powers in the country. The remarks by the 2nd most senior US soldier in Afghanistan are likely to deepen an ongoing dispute between London and Washington over how to fight the insurgency. Underlying all of the various disagreements is the fact that, 7 years into the occupation of the country, US and NATO forces have been unable to subdue the Afghan insurgency.
 
    The German military's reconstruction, security and training role in Afghanistan could add combat missions to its duties after NATO formally requested the Bundeswehr deploy troops as part of a rapid response force.
    The official request from NATO will prompt heightened concern from within Germany that its current non-combat role in Afghanistan is changing and that German troops will soon be required to fight Taliban and al Qaeda insurgents in the war-torn country.
 
    Charges brought against the deep-state linked Ergenekon organization by a Turkish court have shown that the gang was after a military takeover in Turkey while records of phone conversations of its members in the hands of German police show that they were also involved in the drug trade.
    Documents seized during the investigation into the gang, whose members include former military officers, some of them high-ranking, revealed that they were planning to create complete chaos in the country to prepare fertile ground for a military coup d'état in 2009.
    Daily Sabah also alleged that the murder of academic Necip Hablemitoğlu was ordered by the German secret service. Hablemtioğlu's research suggested that individuals opposing gold prospecting disguised their acts as environmentalism but were really serving the interests of powerful gold exporters in Europe. Several newspapers wrote that the group had links to German intelligence.
 
 
 
    Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant will be launched on the scheduled date since Russia's nuclear fuel has been delivered, says an official. He said the station is prepared to go on-line as the fuel required for the primary stage of commissioning the plant has been received.
 
    Syria's Defense Minister calls for boosting Iran-Syrian relations in all sectors in particular, defense issues. According to the Iranian Embassy in Damascus, the Syrian DM expressed his country's readiness for all-out cooperation with the Islamic Republic.
 
    Iran's security calculus has changed. It has almost reached the point of Tehran considering the option of reciprocating the perceived excess Western intrusion into its vicinity by allowing a military base for China at one of Iran's Persian Gulf ports or on one of its islands.
    Without doubt, this would be a significant geopolitical move on both Iran's and China's part, bound to unsettle the US superpower that enjoys unrivalled hegemony in the oil region and which has unsettled China with its recent civilian nuclear agreement with India, widely interpreted as a long-term "containing China" initiative.
    In the tight interplay of geopolitics and geo-economics, with China heavily dependent on energy imports from Iran and other Persian Gulf states, the trend is definitely toward China's naval complement of its flurry of energy deals in order to secure its precious oil and (liquefied) gas cargo ships exiting through the narrow corridors of the Strait of Hormuz.
 
    A new UN resolution against Iran should deepen current sanctions and could pave the way for other action over its nuclear program, US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice said. She also promised more action against Iran outside of the UN Security Council.
 
Puh-leaze...
    A special Knesset session Monday marking the International Holocaust Remembrance Day, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert drew a parallel between the current threat of a nuclear Iran and the Third Reich. While he did not name Iran, he said the Jewish state must defend itself against calls "premised on zealous, murderous ideology, a tyrannical terror-supporting regime that recklessly aspires for regional hegemony, and a malicious program for developing weapons of mass destruction."
    Binyamin Netanyahu also addressed the international community's obligation to fulfill its promise of "never again." "Today, anti-Semitism is back in full force. There are frequent calls for Israel's extermination, yet the world remains silent or says very little."
 
    Bush repeated his bellicose threats against Iran, declaring that the regime in Teheran embodied "the forces of extremism." In what constituted an implicit threat of war, he declared, "America will confront those who threaten our troops, we will stand by our allies, and we will defend our vital interests in the Persian Gulf." Once again, Democrats joined Republicans in a standing ovation, symbolizing the support of the leading figures within the ruling establishment for stepped-up aggression against Iran.
 
    Presidential candidate John McCain shocked observers on Sunday when he told a crowd of supporters, "There's going to be other wars. ... I'm sorry to tell you, there's going to be other wars. We will never surrender but there will be other wars."
    Pat Buchanan said that McCain never used the word "promise" but simply said there would be more wars, and that from McCain's point of view, "that is straight talk. ... You get John McCain in the White House, and I do believe we will be at war with Iran."
 
 
 
    Alex Salmond has a dream: That Scotland should be a free and independent country financing its wealth by gaining direct control over the North Sea oil and gas resources off its shores. The leader of the Scottish National Party, which won control of the regional government in Edinburgh last May, believes that Scotland could become the 6th-richest nation in the world if a fully-independent administration was able to reap the full benefits from its resources. Scotland, so Salmond's dream goes, could move up from being the European Union's 10th most prosperous country to its 3rd.
 
 
    Staggering revelations from ex Mormon insiders reveal the truth behind Republican presidential bidder Mitt Romney's faith. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints camouflages their strange beliefs by masquerading as wholesome Leave it to Beaver style families.
    "The Church of Mormon is dangerous in some respects. It's even more dangerous than some of the other sinister groups. Partially because they look so nice, but the goals of the church are in fact a benevolent dictatorship."
 
    George W. Bush used his 8th and final State of the Union speech to outline an agenda of continuing wars of aggression abroad together with social reaction and political repression at home. Yet the ritualistic annual affair—marked by obscene applause and cheering from both Democratic and Republican legislators for a man who should be standing trial as a war criminal—was overshadowed by the deepest crisis confronting US and world capitalism since the Great Depression of the 1930s.
    The reality is that the policies set by the Bush administration and the Democratic-led Congress alike have nothing to do with the mythical average Americans huddled around their kitchen tables trying to balance their budgets. Rather, economic decisions are determined by the interests and demands of the bankers and businessmen sitting at boardroom tables on Wall Street, awarding themselves multimillion-dollar bonuses and severance packages even as their speculative financial operations threaten to unleash massive economic suffering for the vast majority of the population.
    All of this empty rhetoric on domestic issues served merely as a prelude to the real questions of concern for Bush, the wars of aggression that his administration launched and is continuing abroad and the attacks on democratic rights at home, both carried out under the mantle of a "global war on terrorism."
   
 
 
 
    2008 will be the 9th consecutive year the US economy grows slower than the world's growth while China grows more than 3 times faster. This period began with the collapse of Wall Street's stock market bubble from the late 1990s and ends now with the collapse of Wall Street's housing and other debt bubbles. That such massive mortgage and consumer borrowing, tax cuts and war spending produced such remarkably weak real economic results suggests the months and years ahead could be quite difficult.
 
    At the time of this writing, the storm clouds are swiftly moving towards Wall Street. The US has led the world into the greatest credit bust in history, and yet, few people have any idea of what has transpired.
    Some of the largest bond insurers are currently unable to cover the losses that are piling up from the meltdown in mortgage-backed securities (MBSs) and collateralized debt obligations (CDOs). If the insurers default, hundreds of billions will be lost via downgrades. So, in practical terms, what does it mean if the bond insurers go under? It means that the system will freeze and the stock market will crash.
    The financial system has been handed over to scam-artists and fraudsters who've created a multi-trillion dollar inverted pyramid of shaky, hyper-inflated, subprime slop that they've sold around the world with the tacit support of the ratings agencies and the US political establishment (wink, wink). Now that system is about to collapse and there's nothing that the Federal Reserve can do to stop the Great Credit Unwind of '08.
 
    With the enormous debt at all levels, intertwined throughout various corporations and governments, with a senseless war for strategic oil control costing billions of dollars daily and creating overwhelming negative response to the American way, the world could be in for a long haul where major restructuring of the global markets might take decades to work out.
    Pessimistic? For sure, but the market collapse has been foreseen as a possible/probable event by alternate media for some time, while all the local financial advisors still run the tired and true mantra of "holding on" and "riding it out". Be prepared for a long ride.
 
    "Where is the money coming from? We don't have any money over here in Washington. We have consumed everything we have gotten. So, we either have to borrow it from China or we print the money, which is inflationary. So, I'm opposed to that. And we can't solve the problems of a weak dollar by printing more dollars.
    So, I think the dollar is still going to remain under attack, because you can't solve the problem of too much credit stimulus by more credit stimulus, because it will just lead to a weaker dollar. And I think they [Fed] are between a rock and a hard place."
 
    The leading dove on Britain's Monetary Policy Committee has broken ranks in a rare outburst of dissent, rebuking colleagues for waiting too long to cut rates as the economy slows abruptly. "Worrying about inflation at this time seems like fiddling while Rome burns," he said, resorting to language rarely heard in the bland world of central banks.
    The comments came as the IMF tore up its growth forecast for 2008 and abandons a quarter-century doctrine of fiscal orthodoxy. It warned that damage from the credit turmoil has reached the point where governments may need to ignore the rule book and resort to radical measures.
    While Mr Blanchflower's comments have been surprisingly blunt, equally bitter disputes are simmering at major central banks across the world.The European Central Bank has the most acute political dilemma among the world's major central banks as the 2 halves of the eurozone system are pulling apartThe facade of unity is breaking down at the ECB, where governors from the Latin Bloc have begun to mutiny as their countries grapple with the strong euro and the onset of a housing slump.
 
    Within minutes of last week's rate cut by the Federal Reserve, market analysts predicted that the European Central Bank would have to do the same. The ECB may cut interest rates at some point, though I would not bet any hard currency on this. Some central bankers have even advocated a rate increase.
 
    Leaders of the 4 biggest European economies will today appeal for calm in the markets by stating that Europe's position remains strong, and by calling for more transparency from banks and credit rating agencies. This evening's extraordinary meeting in London has been convened by Gordon Brown in an attempt to show he is engaged with Europe and has an agenda that can tackle the growing turmoil in the markets.
 
    There is now, as the British say, clear blue water, between us Europeans, and the Americans. To me, it seems, that the Americans are panicking. The 75bp rate cut was a sign of panic. It was an unnecessary overreaction, as will be the likely 50bp cut that follows this week.
    The $150bn fiscal stimulus is also excessively, and wrongly targeted. And for the state to take a leading role in raising the capital base of the financial sector, as Larry Summers effectively suggested in his FT column this morning, is in my view the ultimate form of panic.
    This is as bad as economic policy gets. We can be glad in Europe not to have such a lousy system of economic governance over here.
 
    Evidence came out casting serious doubts of Societe Generale's proclamations that this crisis was the work of a single rogue trader. The Financial Times, and others, report that the Swiss futures exchange Eurex had warned SocGen as early as November about irregularities.
 
 
 
    Our map gives us a brief history of the world's most well-known religions: Christianity, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Judaism. Selected periods of inter-religious bloodshed are also highlighted. See 5,000 years of religion in 90 seconds.
 
    It is possible to derive facts that establish beyond doubt that an evolutionary origin of life on this planet would have been impossible. The origin of life could only have resulted from the action of an intelligent agent external to and independent of the natural universe.
    [WAR: Why is it that Pravda has such great articles against evolution, but there isn't any in the US papers? Hmmm...]
 
 

E-mail format for military: YAHOO! WARriors
Daily e-mail reminder: GOOGLE / YAHOO! / MSN
WAR fund: PayPal (payable to thedailywarrior@gmail.com)