Thursday

The Daily WAR (11-20)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
 
 
    The German government's crackdown on tax evaders comes courtesy of stolen bank data, for which Germany's intelligence service, the BND, paid millions. But now many have begun to ask: Does the end justify the means?
 
Fannin' the flames!...
    More European newspapers should publish the hotly disputed Mohammed cartoons, said Interior Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble (CDU) as violent protests broke out in Sudan over the recent reprinting of the caricatures.
 
    Germany's most senior judge has suggested that while democracy has been strengthened in the EU's new treaty, a key innovation involving national parliaments does not go far enough and member states have no guarantee that EU powers will not continue to grow.
 
    Bavarian state-owned bank BayernLB is concealing the true extent of its losses incurred as a result of the subprime crisis in the US. Now the Bavarian savings banks are threatening to give up their 50% stake in the bank. The bank's real losses are apparently far greater than the $2.8 billion in write-offs it recently disclosed.
    Erwin Huber (chairman of Bavaria's conservative Christian Social Union) has miscalculated on a grand scale. His over-ambitious calculations have caused a snowballing affair involving BayernLB that has seriously damaged the CSU -- in a Bavarian election year, of all times.
 
    The European Commission has begun an investigation into whether government assistance to two German banks amounted to illegal state aid. Commercial lender IKB and regional bank Sachsen LB, owned by the state of Saxony, were bailed out after losses connected with the US sub-prime crisis.
    The German government had to step in to prevent them going bankrupt, offering further loans to the banks. Brussels will now determine whether such actions conformed to EU rules.
 
German press
    As the tax evasion scandal in Germany widens to the rest of Europe and even Australia and New Zealand, Liechtenstein finds itself in an uncomfortable spot. German commentators predict tough times ahead for the tiny principality, and ponder the effects of the scandal on Liechtenstein, and on German society itself.
 
 
 
    To cancel one high-level Franco-German meeting is unfortunate. To cancel 2 in less than a week implies a bank of freezing fog is descending over the Rhine. French and German officials sought yesterday to play down the significance of the abrupt postponement – both by Paris – of 2 meetings between the countries' most senior politicians.
    Privately, and not so privately, the talk in both capitals is of a serious rift in the single most important national partnership in Europe. Officials blame an increasingly difficult relationship between President Sarkozy and Chancellor Merkel.
    With France scheduled to take the presidency of the European Union in July, the Franco-German tiff could not be timed worse.
 
    European commission president Jose Manuel Barroso has said that the European elections, regularly marked by voter apathy and low turnout, create a legitimacy problem for his post. "I really believe we have a problem there," he said responding to a question about whether European citizens should have the power to directly elect the person to fill his post.
 
    EU interior ministers are gathering in Brussels for what is likely to be a heated battle over how the European Union should react to new US travel security demands, with member states split between those who enjoy visa-free travel to the US and those who do not.
 
    The international community's high representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina has expressed concerns over the "deteriorating" political situation in the country, amid calls for secession from segments of Republika Srpska – Bosnia's Serb entity.
 
    While Britain, France and Germany have recognised Kosovo as a sovereign state, the rest of the EU has split on the matter. Spain, Cyprus, Slovakia and Romania are refusing to recognise Kosovan independence lest it encourage ethnic separatism in their own backyards.
    The "so what?" here is obvious: would these EU members be equally intransigent when it came to recognising an independent Scotland, and would they go so far as to try to veto continued Scottish membership of the EU itself? Given what has happened over Kosovo, I don't think we can blindly dismiss the theoretical possibility.
 
    The latest Balkan fools are the US and the EU, which have rushed in to recognize what Serbia's PM rightly calls the "fake state of Kosovo." Why is it a fake state? Because there are no Kosovars, only Serbs and Albanians. Each group seeks to unite Kosovo with its homeland, historic Serbia or Greater Albania.
    The last thing the world needs now is a new Balkan war, with NATO and Russia caught in a contest of mutual escalation. Berlin, are you listening? The Congress of Berlin of 2008 may be as successful as the Congress of Berlin of 1878 in averting war in Europe.
 
    The man all but certain to win Russia's presidency warned that Kosovo's independence could destabilize Europe. Dmitry Medvedev, who is expected to easily win Sunday's presidential vote, said Kosovo's independence has "jeopardized security and stability of the vast region."
    He said recognition of Kosovo's declaration, spearheaded by the US, has "put Europe in a very difficult situation." "The United States is far away and is not facing any risks, but Europe could go ablaze. It's enough to put a match to set everything ablaze."
 
    Turks and Serbs have been 2 of the major whipping boys by certain elements in the EU and US. The way Kosovo is being handled should alarm many Turks.
    The term "people of Kosovo" as being used by Condoleezza Rice and Nicholas Burns really means Albanians. There has been lip service paid to the rights of Kosovo Serbs and other minorities, but the use of the Albanian flag and emphasis on Albanian nationalism of Kosovo's leaders shows where their real intentions are.
    The next humanitarian intervention could well be in Kirkuk to empower Kurdish nationalists. Both the KLA and Kurdish Peshmerga became American lackeys and as Turkish officials should know from the beginning of the 20th century that separatist militias on the take from foreign powers are very dangerous.
 
    Kosovo is not gaining independence or even minimal self-government. It will be run by an appointed High Representative and bodies appointed by the US, EU and NATO. US Imperialism has merely consolidated its direct control of a totally dependent colony in the heart of the Balkans.
    The resources of Kosovo under NATO occupation were forcibly privatized and sold to giant Western multinational corporations.The only major construction in Kosovo is of Camp Bondsteel, the largest US base built in Europe in a generation. It guards the strategic OIL and transportation lines of the entire region.
 
    After Sunday's elections in Russia, Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin are expected to form a governing duo. But why assume that a czar duo can ensure stability? Shared leadership has never worked in Russia.
 
    His words and behavior have raised unexpected but pervasive questions: Does Medvedev mean what he seems to say? Can he relax the Kremlin's grip on Russian political life that has been a central characteristic of Putin's rule? And if he does, will he clash with Putin, his principal source of power? Analysts are split.
 
 
 
    Turkey stepped up its offensive against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq on Wednesday and refused to set a pull-out timetable. A senior Turkish official said the operation would continue until the PKK, labeled a terrorist group by Turkey and much of the international community, is uprooted from the region, which it uses a springboard for attacks in Turkey. "There will be no timetable to withdraw Turkish troops ... until the presence of the terrorist organization is eliminated."
 
    The struggle between Kurds and Arabs for control of the city of Kirkuk and its oil amounts to a "ticking time bomb" in northern Iraq, according to the new UN envoy trying to broker a settlement. He said in an interview that he has about 4 months left to solve "the mother of all crises" in Iraq.
    Turkey's military incursion into Iraq last week to fight Kurdish rebels may remind Iraqi Kurds that their designs on more territory and oil have limits. Turkey is concerned that the Kurdish regional government would use Kirkuk and its oil to seek independence, displace minorities in the city and embolden breakaway Kurds on Turkish soil.
    The dispute over the estimated 10 billion barrels of crude in the region pits the Kurds' expansion drive against Arab demands to keep central authority over oil -- and Kurds within Iraq.
 
    Prime Minister Olmert's government is debating asking the international community or NATO to send troops to the Gaza Strip, according to Israeli defense officials. They said Olmert is considering allowing the Israel Defense Forces to launch a large-scale ground operation in Gaza, and then after a prolonged ground operation, Olmert would threaten that Israeli troops would remain in Gaza unless the international community deploys forces to serve as a buffer.
 
    Lebanon's political crisis is becoming more complicated and foreign influence over the struggle between the Beirut governing coalition and Hezbollah-led opposition is unprecedented, a mediator has said.
    Lebanon has been without a president for 3 months and the 2 sides are at odds over how to share seats in a new cabinet. The governing coalition is backed by foreign powers including the US and its Arab allies such as Saudi Arabia and Egypt. The opposition is supported by Syria and Iran.
 
    The Saudi King is to boycott an Arab summit to be held in Damascus in a bid to exert pressure on Syria over Lebanon's crisis. Arab analysts and media reports have suggested that Saudi Arabia and other Persian Gulf littoral states could boycott the Damascus summit or send low-level delegates.
 
    A political analyst has warned that failure of talks to address Kenya's political crisis could prove explosive. "It will not be machetes and arrows any more, but firearms. Intelligence reports show that people are seriously arming youths in readiness for war. The next phase will be total breakdown of law and order."
 
 
 
    It's exceptionally difficult to separate fact from fiction when it comes to the Islamic state.
 
    Iranian supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei said Muslim countries did not need the approval of the US record great achievements. "Some Islamic countries think that if the United States does not agree they cannot be successful. This opinion is a lie and wrong. If nations decide without the approval of superpowers they can do great work. The US superpower language is a language of making threats and creating fear. If Islamic countries become united, this language of fear will have no effect."
 
    President Ahmadinejad has stressed that 'political scams and excuses' will not deter his country from progressing. Enemies have been trying to hinder Iran's progress for years but they have failed to do so, he told a ceremony marking the 40th day of mourning for Ashura today.
 
    British executive Robert Mills says his express delivery firm is enjoying explosive growth in Iran, despite tightening international sanctions. With a longstanding US embargo barring 2 key rivals from entering the world's 4th-largest crude producer, DHL Express (a unit of mail and logistics group Deutsche Post) claims a share of at least 60% of what Mills called one of the region's fastest-growing markets for the sector.
    Unlike the US, the EU still lets its firms operate in Iran, even though leading EU states are backing Washington in stepping up pressure to halt Tehran's nuclear activities.
 
    Russia warned Iran that it would support a new set of UN sanctions over its nuclear programme unless Tehran stopped uranium enrichment in the next few days. "If Iran in the next few days does not stop the enrichment activities of its heavy water project then yes, Russia ... has taken upon itself certain commitments... to support the resolution that has been drafted in the past month."
 
    UN diplomats say the Security Council will approve new sanctions against Iran for refusing to suspend uranium enrichment. Diplomats said that the vote was likely to be delayed until next week to try to get 4 non-permanent members who have expressed concern about the resolution to back it. The 5 veto-wielding permanent council members have already agreed on the draft resolution.
 
 
 
He's gone from laughingstock to presumptive nominee by campaigning for WW3. So why do conservatives fear him?
    He's survived because Onward to Victory is the last great illusion the Republican Party has left to sell in this country, even to its own followers. All they have left to offer to voters is this sad, dwindling, knee-jerk patriotism. The lesson of the McCain campaign is that one should never underestimate America's capacity for self-delusion.
    McCain's vision, then and now, encompasses war as a way of life. There is significant evidence that McCain believes war is something righteous and necessary, a tonic for the national soul, intrinsically "noble" irrespective of context (he is still one of the only politicians to apply that word to the Iraq conflict).
    No matter how moderate McCain seems on domestic issues, on the issue of war he's stark raving mad. He's a wounded, crusading Ahab, and civilian command and diplomatic restraint are his Great White Whale. If he gets put in charge of a Middle Eastern war that is easily widened, it's whirlpool time for all of us.
 
    The disconnect between the heated rhetoric and recriminations and the narrow range of visible political differences draws one to the conclusion that more fundamental issues are being fought out behind the scenes and are driving the public conflict between Clinton and Obama.
    What are those issues? One can surmise that they involve the intersection of a deepening economic and financial crisis, growing social discontent within the US, and a palpable decline in the world position of the US after 7 years of foreign policy debacles by the Bush administration.
 
    The Air Force is tightening restrictions on which blogs its troops can read, cutting off access to just about any independent site with the word "blog" in its web address.
    AFNOC has imposed bans on all sites with "blog" in their URLs, thus cutting off any sites hosted by Blogspot. Other blogs, and sites in general, are blocked based on content reviews performed at the base, command and AFNOC level ...
    The idea isn't to keep airmen in the dark -- they can still access news sources that are "primary, official-use sources. Basically ... if it's a place like The New York Times, an established, reputable media outlet, then it's fairly cut and dry that that's a good source, an authorized source."
    But this view isn't universally held in the military. Many believe blogs to be a valuable source of information.
 
    Canada's Trade Minister suggested the US has a sweet deal over access to Canada's oil under the North American Free Trade Agreement, saying the 2 Democratic presidential candidates calling for renegotiations may not know just how good the US has it under the deal.
    "Knowledgeable observers would have to take note of the fact that we are the largest supplier of energy to the US and NAFTA has been the foundation for integrating the North American energy market."
 
 
 
    The euro has surged to an all-time high of $1.51 against the dollar, prompting bitter complaints from European industry and setting off a sharp sell-off in sovereign bonds from southern states deemed least able to withstand a super-strong currency.
    The euro's explosive move came after Ben Bernanke yesterday signalled further cuts in interest rates, acknowledging that tumbling house prices risked setting off a 2nd phase of the credit crisis.
    The European Central Bank has refused to budge so far, holding rates steady at 4% despite the credit crunch. Euro-zone inflation has reached 3.2%, the highest since the launch of the currency.
    Even so, the refusal of the ECB to start following the USFR with pre-emptive cuts as Europe's economy slows has set off a growing chorus of protest from EU politicians.
    Paris may try to force a change of tack by invoking Maastricht Article 109, which gives EU politicians the power to dictate exchange policy. France has lacked allies for use of this so-called "nuclear option", but this may change now that a number of eurozone countries are in trouble.
    Spreads between 10-year German government bonds and the equivalent debt across the eurozone's Latin bloc have jumped to the highest level since the launch of EMU.
    The currrency chief at BNP Paribas said foreigner investors had largely stopped buying euro-zone bonds, suggesting that the euro rally is now on its last legs. He said there may soon come a point when the ECB's ultra-hawkish turns negative for the euro.
    The chief economist at the Centre for European Reform said Germany had in effect pursued a "beggar-thy-neighbour" policy, winning market share at the expense of eurozone partners. "There is potential for tensions here."
    The dangers were masked as long as the Latin bloc was enjoying a consumer boom fuelled by very low real interest rates. Now the political resilience of the monetary system will be put to the test.
 
    Sprint Nextel swung to a huge 4th-quarter loss of $29.5 billion today as it wrote down most of the remaining value of its 2005 purchase of Nextel Communications and continued to lose customers to competitors.
 
    The US could be facing a "lost decade" like that suffered by Japan in the 1990s as the markets fail to respond to interest rate cuts and the Federal Reserve runs out of options, the head of one of the leading private equity firms said today.
 
    Throughout the economy, all over the world, people have bought into the idea that a central bank can somehow create capital out of nothing. We are now in the early phases of a great unraveling of credit obligations.
 
    Ron Paul slammed Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke during a House Financial Services Committee meeting for following a policy of deliberately destroying the dollar and wiping out the American middle class. Paul held Bernanke to task over his refusal to address the decline of the dollar and its clear link to inflation.
 
Ron Paul:
    Our current series of hearings have been called to discuss the most important, but least understood, price manipulation in the world today: the manipulation of the interest rate.
    This setting of the interest rate introduces the business cycle into the economy. Until we understand the results these Federal Reserve actions have, we will be doomed to repeat these periods of boom and bust. I urge my colleagues to study this matter, and to resist the urge for greater Federal Reserve intervention in the market.
    "I cannot see how we can continue to accept the policy of deliberately destroying the value of money as an economic value," he said, adding that the policy was "immoral," and would lead to a reduction in American's living standards and "the middle class being wiped out."
    Asked how he could defend a policy of deliberately depreciating the dollar, Bernanke stumbled through his response and was basically forced to agree with Paul's point.
 
    Powerful ideological and material factors are at work here. The financial crises now sweeping the world economy, and the deepening hostility to the "neo-con" free market agenda of the Bush regime, have undoubtedly created a "market" for a "left" critique of the present order—and a consequent willingness by publishing houses to devote resources to its promotion.
    American capitalism, for the first time in its history, is undergoing a decline. It is being challenged by old powers and fast rising new ones.
 
    The announcement by the executive director of the UN World Food Program, that the globe's main provider of food aid may have to start rationing is not just bad news for countries like Afghanistan and Ethiopia that depend on its supplies. It's grim news for everybody.
    The global economy is just about coping with the subprime crisis, the fall of the dollar and oil at $100 a barrel. But the inflationary surge in food prices could prove to be the final straw.
    This problem is not going to be easily resolved because the world faces the double threat of a long-term trend of rising demand in conditions of tightly constrained supply. There are already limits to the availability of arable land and severe pressures on water supplies, and climate change seems to be exacerbating both. The world is heading into a perfect storm...
 
 
 
    Of all major US airline crashes within the US investigated and published by the National Transportation Safety Board during the past 20 years, the 9/11 'black boxes' are virtually the only ones without listed serial numbers.
    The US government alleges that 4 registered Boeing commercial passenger aircraft were used in the September 11, 2001 attacks, yet has failed to produce any physical evidence collected from the 3 9/11 crash scenes positively tied to these federally registered United and American airlines aircraft.
    Despite the release of abundant information regarding the 9/11 flights and the aircraft reportedly used, specific information that would confirm official allegations regarding the identity of these aircraft has been mysteriously withheld or denied upon request.
 
    By the end of this year one half of the world's population will be living in cities for the first time in human history, the UN said in a new report.
 
 
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