Thursday

The Daily WAR (12-18)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
    Pope Benedict XVI arrives for his first visit in the US next month with the country once again in the middle of a heated presidential election. And while no one believes the pope will speak directly about the presidential election during his visit, the tone and focus of his speeches could help influence millions of Catholic voters, many of whom live in key swing states such as Ohio, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which holds its primary next month.
    If Benedict speaks pointedly about abortion, it could give a lift to Republican John McCain, even though McCain is at odds with the church on one key issue: embryonic stem cell research. But if Benedict also focuses more on world peace, poverty and church positions against capital punishment and punitive immigration laws, then many Catholics may consider supporting whichever Democrat gets the nomination, experts say.
 
 
 
    A German member of parliament has said the incitement charges brought this week against the leader of the far-right NPD party, Udo Voigt, could help efforts to get the party banned.
 
Press review
    The rise of the Left Party is rapidly transforming German politics by forcing long-time arch-enemies into bed with each other. The Greens and the liberal Free Democrats have already started adjusting to what media commentators say will be deeply confusing times for the country's voters.
 
    The launch of a Russian carrier rocket with a German satellite from the Plesetsk space center in northern Russia has been postponed until yesterday(?) due to poor weather, a spokesman for Russia's Space Forces said on Tuesday.
    The German SAR-Lupe satellite is designed to provide high-resolution radar images to NATO military commanders in Europe. It offers spatial resolution of less than 1 meter, and allows imaging at night and through clouds.
 
    Shortly before leaving office in 2007, former Bavarian Governor Edmund Stoiber announced that his prestige project -- a high-speed, magnetic-levitation train between Munich's airport and train station -- would indeed be built. But now, following a crisis meeting in Berlin today, the federal Transport Minister announced, "The magnetic-levitation railway project in Munich has failed."
    The Transrapid was considered a prestige project for the Christian Social Union, the party which has formed the government in Bavaria for most of the state's post-war history. All other major parties as well as nature conservationists have been critical of the project from the outset, calling it overly-expensive and unnecessary. Now they're gloating over their victory.
 
    Germany and other industrialized nations are desperately trying to brace themselves against the threat of a collapse of the global financial system. The crisis has now taken its toll on the German economy, where the weak dollar is putting jobs in jeopardy and the credit crunch is paralyzing many businesses.
    The ordinary working day has been in disarray in recent weeks at the Bundesbank headquarters building, where the crisis on international financial markets has many employees working late, even on weekends.
    For some time, there has been a tacit agreement among central bankers and the financial ministers of key economies not to allow any bank large enough to jeopardize the system to go under -- no matter what the cost.
    Everyone involved knows how explosive the agreement is. It essentially means that while the profits of banks are privatized, society bears the cost of their losses. In a world in which the rich are getting richer and the poor poorer, that is political dynamite.
    Nevertheless, central bankers are running out of options. They are anxious to avert the nightmare scenario of a financial crisis like the one that rocked Germany in 1931, when the failure of a major Berlin bank prompted a massive run on other banks by a nervous public, which plunged those banks into insolvency.
    For decades, a repetition of that disaster had seemed unthinkable. But ever since former Alan Greenspan dubbed the current financial crisis the worst since the end of WW2, old certainties have no longer applied.
    Like a dangerous virus, the crisis in the US real estate market has infected large parts of the worldwide financial system. After being burned by scores of bad loans, the banks have become deeply distrustful of each other. They have gambled away their most important asset: trust.
    As the weeks progress, the disaster scenarios painted by prophets of doom are becoming more and more likely. For months, American economist Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University, has warned of the risks of a "core meltdown" of global financial systems.
    In this situation, even the most zealous disciples of the free market are calling for more government intervention. The current situation has the potential to develop into "the biggest financial crisis in postwar history" as long as "the markets are allowed to continue operating unchecked."
    The German finance ministry has become a place of nonstop crisis meetings, the chancellery is kept constantly apprised of the latest developments, and the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority has already set up a task force to address the issue. No one in the government has the slightest doubt that it will intervene the minute another bank begins to falter.
    The plunge of the US currency has already shaken the core of German industry. The weak dollar threatens thousands of jobs. If the economists are right, there will soon be a fundamental shift in the political agenda.
    The government and the opposition are still discussing how to distribute the fruits of Germany's economic recovery more broadly among social classes. The government is also prepared for a continuation of the bank crisis. In the wake of the financial crisis, a new debate has begun over the role of the state.
    [WAR: Sorry for the lengthy excerpt, but this is vitally important! And just as Germany is beginning to have "a new debate over the role of the state", and soon-coming "fundamental shift in the political agenda," B16 is about to release his latest encyclical on social issues -- including globalization and economics. So will the German Shepherd ride to the rescue of Germany and provide it with timely answers for the current problems?...]
 
 
 
    Former Russian prime minister Yevgeny Primakov said that the ethnic partition of Kosovo was the only option to avoid future conflict, and it would entail population movements.
    "The best solution would be now for Serbs to move out of southern parts to northern parts, which are closer to Serbia, and then to join Serbia. I still think partition is the only solution. If not, there will be constant conflicts and innocent people will suffer."
 
    Russia and the West could be headed for a showdown over independence claims of 2 breakaway regions in Georgia. On Friday, Russia's Duma in a statement called on the Russian president and the government to recognize the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia if Georgian authorities would use force to regain control of its breakaway provinces.
 
    President Bush announced yesterday that he will make an unexpected trip to Russia after a NATO summit next week to meet with President Putin in hopes of repairing relations that have grown strained over missile defense, Kosovo independence and NATO expansion. The decision surprised even some key US officials and set both governments scrambling to accommodate the last-minute visit and put together an agreement to justify it.
 
 
 
    Turkey's energy minister on Monday invited bids for the construction of country's 1st nuclear power plant, which is to be built on the Mediterranean coast despite strong opposition from environmentalists.
 
    Israel's water authority was set to impose restrictions on household water consumption as the country grapples with one of the most severe water shortages in years, an official said. "The situation is bad, it is very bad. There is an acute water shortage in the country."
    With the rain quantities for this year's winter standing at 50-60% of the annual average, Israel's reservoirs today stand at a 10-year low, according to official figures. And a string of 4 dry winters has brought the country's main water source, the Sea of Galilee, to its lowest level in 46 years.
 
    Ten Jordanian MPs have presented a bill to the lower house of parliament seeking to scrap the 1994 peace treaty with the Zionist regime. The draft gave several reasons for scrapping the treaty, including that Israel "does not honor the agreement and is still a threat to Jordan." It said the Zionist regime "has committed premeditated crimes in Jordan, and genocide in Palestine."
 
    President Putin Wednesday insisted on the need to hold an international conference with the participation of all the countries involved in the Middle East conflict.
 
    A new civil war is threatening to explode in Iraq as American-backed Iraqi government forces fight Shia militiamen for control of Basra and parts of Baghdad. The gun battles between soldiers and militiamen, who are all Shia Muslims, show that Iraq's majority Shia community – which replaced Saddam Hussein's Sunni regime – is splitting apart for the first time.
 
    Former weapons inspector David Kay blames German intelligence for the legerdemain that led to the Iraq invasion. He concluded that while Washington was intent on going to war with Iraq, if the BND had not acted 'dishonest, unprofessional, and irresponsible' and had checked the validity of its sources, the US may not have opted to go to war.
    A high-ranking German intelligence official speaking on condition of anonymity has refuted the claims against the BND, saying Washington is ultimately at fault. "We simply passed on information, no evaluations. The US bears responsibility for what happened at the Security Council."
 
    Three German soldiers were injured, 2 of them seriously, in an attack on their convoy in northern Afghanistan today, according to a statement from the German army.
    Meanwhile, pressure has been growing on Germany to deploy some of its forces to help combat the Taliban insurgency in the more volatile south of the country. The attack on the troops near Kunduz comes just a day after Canadian Defense Minister Peter MacKay became the latest to call for a German combat deployment.
 
    US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte and Richard Boucher, the Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asia, arrived in Islamabad early Tuesday, with almost no advanced warning to their Pakistani hosts. Their sudden visit exemplifies the Bush administration's apprehensions about the change of regime now underway in Pakistan.
    In reality Negroponte and Boucher descended on Pakistan in order to strong-arm the new government into guaranteeing that Pakistan will continue to play a leading role in supporting US imperialism's predatory ambitions in central and west Asia.
    Pakistan is pivotal to the US occupation of Afghanistan. It is the conduit for most of the fuel and many other essential supplies used by US and NATO forces in Afghanistan. Pakistan is also serving as a staging area for US preparations for future military action against Iran.
 
Damn right!...
    China's ambassador to Canada accused the Dalai Lama of misleading the world about his role in masterminding protests in Tibet.
    "Dalai Lama has presented himself to be a peaceful, like an angel kind of figure, for such a long time and the Western public take this for granted. The conclusion here I want to say is, Dalai Lama has been telling lies to the world for decades to make the Western public believe that whatever he says is truth (and that's) wrong."
 
 
 
    India's Oil and Natural Gas Corp hopes to sign deals with Iran to develop huge oil and gas fields in Iran at a meeting planned for next month.
 
    Iran has threatened legal action against Western states to seek compensation for losses it said it had suffered from UN Security Council sanctions over its nuclear program.
 
    Israeli army chief of staff Gabi Ashkenazi advises Washington to consider all deterrence measures to cripple Iran's nuclear program.
    In a Wednesday meeting with Chairman of the US Subcommittee on Defense Daniel Inouye, Ashkenazi described Tehran's uranium enrichment and long-range missile technologies as the 'principal and most potent threat' to Israel and the Middle East.
    Rendering the Hezbollah and the Hamas as Middle Eastern terrorist organizations, the Israeli warlord accused Iran of supplying them with an 'advanced weapons arsenal'.
 
 
 
NO, not that!...
    Gordon Brown is to consider abolishing the Act that prevents Roman Catholics marrying into the Royal Family or becoming king or queen, in a move that could lead to the disestablishment of the Church of England.
 
Act of Settlement
    Is the time approaching when something must be done to address three centuries of institutionalised discrimination against Catholics?
    The Act of Settlement of June 12, 1701, was one of the final measures of the reign of William III and embedded the outcome of the "Glorious Revolution" of 1689. It states that no sovereign "shall profess the Popish religion or shall marry a Papist". It also requires that any sovereign shall be in communion with the Church of England.
    Repealing the Act would also require changes to the Act of Union 1707, with which it is inextricably linked. It would also require the agreement of 16 Commonwealth countries of which the Queen remains head of state. It could even reopen the whole question of the succession.
 
    The state banquet in St George's Hall, the centrepiece of Windsor Castle's apartments, was a fitting culmination to a day in which President Sarkozy promised closer partnership between his nation and Britain in his speech to the Houses of Parliament.
    Two centuries since their troops last fought on the battlefield, France and Britain had forged the "strongest ties, perhaps tinged with suspicion but always marked by a great deal of mutual admiration and affection. The time has come for a new Franco-British fraternity to build our common future."
 
    No other navy has anything comparable to the dozen or so aircraft carrier battle groups that the US Navy continuously operates around the world, or has anything comparable to this enormous and technologically magnificent strategic system of projecting US air power around the world. Russia currently has 1 aircraft carrier.
    Britain operates a small carrier and is planning to build 2 more. It is fair to say, therefore, that only Britain has even shown any ability so far to reliably operate far smaller, non-nuclear aircraft carriers on a reliable and ongoing basis.
    What does the US get for the scores of billions of dollars it costs to build, maintain and operate its aircraft carrier battle groups? A very great deal.
 
    It's time to set a new precedent. For the past 7 years Bush/Cheney and Co. have been doing an outstanding job trashing the US Constitution. However, it's time for the State to take aim at another pillar of the Constitution. Coming under fire right now is the favorite target of the State, the 2nd Amendment.
    If one reads the US Constitution and pays close attention to the style of language used, one could deduce that the intent of the 2nd Amendment is clear. You and I can keep and bear whatever damned thing we want to.
    Once they infringe upon the 2nd Amendment, will it be time for them to take on the 1st Amendment?
 
    We've all seen it on television. The defense attorney argues his client was "entrapped". That is, that it wasn't the defendant's idea to commit the crime, but that the police planted the idea and urged him to do it.
    Many of us have heard allegations that post-9/11 arrests of suspected Al Qaeda members were based on very thin information. Did you realize that all or virtually all of these arrests occurred due to entrapment?
 
    FSB reports circulating in the Kremlin today are detailing what is described as a 'frantic search' occurring in the United States over what their Military Nuclear experts believes is a 'loose' suitcase sized nuclear weapon believed to have been smuggled into the American commercial air transportation system, and which has caused chaos in the US as hundreds of flights have been 'suddenly' cancelled leaving tens of thousands of passengers stranded.
    The concerns of the Americans, these reports continue, is based upon what is called a 'hot reading' received from a US Air Force Satellite monitoring nuclear 'signatures' over North America and are under the control of the US Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration.
    The nuclear signature picked up by the US Air Force, these reports continue, was located above Texas at an estimated height of over 20,000 feet, and which, these reports continue, would be consistent with military flights of American 'deep secret' aircraft or the planned transferring of nuclear weapons or nuclear weapon material.
 
    George W. Bush's strategy of countering President Chávez by strengthening ties to Colombia's rightist government has been undercut by fresh evidence of high-level drug corruption and human rights violations implicating President Uribe's inner circle.
 
    For America's presidential candidates, the global electoral map is looking as divided as the domestic one. When foreigners look at the three contenders, Barack Obama seems to have the lead among Europeans and Africans. Hillary Clinton is popular among Mexicans and Chinese. John McCain just returned from a campaign swing through the Middle East and Europe.
    US presidential contests often attract interest from foreign countries. The world's sole superpower has such an impact on the globe that, as a Belgian newspaper recently suggested, the rest of the world may feel it should be allowed to vote, too.
 
    Four Texas metropolitan areas were among the biggest population gainers as Americans continued their trend of moving to the Sun Belt in 2006 and 2007, according to Census Bureau estimates to be released today. Dallas-Fort Worth added more than 162,000 residents, more than any other metro area. Houston, Austin and San Antonio - also cracked the top 10.
    [WAR: This is a big reason why I moved from DFW to SE Arizona.]
 
 
 
    The price of crude oil surged near $107 this morning after saboteurs bombed one of Iraq's main oil pipelines in what was feared to be a backlash attack by powerful Shia Muslim militias.
    "The pipeline was severely damaged. Firefighters are struggling to control the fire, which is huge. A lot of crude has spilt onto the ground. If we manage to control the fire today, we will need 3 days to repair the pipeline."
 
    European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet warned that global markets were in the midst of a major correction which recalled the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis and the first global oil shock.
    "I wouldn't say the worst is behind us. If we don't learn the lessons of the past we will find ourselves faced with the same problems that we encountered during the first oil crisis."
    However, he rejected calls for an interest-rate cut after a surprise rise in German business confidence this month, insisting that fighting inflation is his priority.
 
    We know the credit crisis is a clear and present threat to the global economy. But its most important long-run legacy may not be economic, but geopolitical. This has been a crisis of Anglo-Saxon transaction-based capitalism. Not too long ago, it was considered to be vastly superior to the eurozone's old-fashioned relationship finance.
    Inertia means that the euro will not overtake the dollar any time soon. At present the euro only accounts for a little over a quarter of world reserves, against the dollar's share of two-thirds.
 
    On Eurozone Watch, we have repeatedly written about possible consequences of divergence in EMU business cycles (and possibly connected debates on EMU exit of single countries) and that at some point this might turn up in higher spreads of government bonds.
    One explanation for this might be the different degree of exposure to the 3 shocks hitting EMU simultaneously at the moment: high oil prices, the euro's appreciation against the dollar, and the credit crunch. In all 3 respects southern Europe seems to be a lot more exposed than Germany.
 
    As Iceland goes, so go the Baltics, the Balkans, Hungary, Turkey, and perhaps South Africa. All are living far beyond their means, plugging the gaping holes in their accounts with fickle flows of foreign finance.
    For Iceland, the high-wire act of the last five years may have finally reached its limits. The central bank was forced to raise interest rates to 15% this week in an emergency move to halt the collapse of krona.
    Iceland is more than just a Nordic hedge fund masquerading as a country. It is also the first of the deficit states to succumb to investor flight, sending an early warning signal of potential troubles across a great swathe of Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean.
    Borrowing in foreign currencies was all the rage in the heady days of the credit bubble. This is now turning into slow torture.
 
    Little by little, millions of Americans surrendered equity in their homes in recent years. Lulled by good times, they borrowed — sometimes heavily — against the roofs over their heads.
    Now the bill is coming due. As the housing market spirals downward, home equity loans, which turn home sweet home into cash sweet cash, are becoming the next flash point in the mortgage crisis.
    Americans owe a staggering $1.1 trillion on home equity loans — and banks are increasingly worried they may not get some of that money back. To get it, many lenders are taking the extraordinary step of preventing some people from selling their homes or refinancing their mortgages unless they pay off all or part of their home equity loans first.
 
    For years, Americans have reveled in profligate, load-up-the-back- of-the-SUV-at-Target excess, much of it paid for by credit cards, home equity or other loans. The binge has produced some supposedly healthy economic growth and provided everyone lots of nice stuff.
    But now debt collectors from around the world are knocking. That's why today's turmoil in US financial markets will end in a massive transfer of wealth from America to the rest of the globe.
 
    It will take years and trillions of dollars to dig ourselves out of this hole, as the ripple effects of the mortgage meltdown reverberate throughout the economy: millions of families losing their homes, a housing industry in disarray, skyrocketing consumer debt, tight credit, massive lay-offs, neighborhoods in decline, and serious fiscal woes for states and cities.
    The financial services industry has shown again and again that it cannot self-regulate. It's time for the government to step in.
 
    Something in the range of 34,000 pink slips – "You're fired" – have been handed out by Wall Street firms over the past 9 months. I think the pink slips tell us where the stock market is headed: down. If Wall Street firms' managers were convinced that this is the bottom, they would not be firing workers.
 
 
 
The Economic and Security Implications of Global Warming
    Thanks to global warming, the Arctic icecap is rapidly melting, opening up access to massive natural resources and creating shipping shortcuts that could save billions of dollars a year. But there are currently no clear rules governing this economically and strategically vital region. Unless Washington leads the way toward a multilateral diplomatic solution, the Arctic could descend into armed conflict.
 
The Resurgence of the Predatory State
    After decades of historic gains, the world has slipped into a democratic recession. Predatory states are on the rise, threatening both nascent and established democracies throughout the world. But this trend can be reversed with the development of good governance and strict accountability and the help of conditional aid from the West.
 
    The World Trade Organization has changed the world in the past decade by welcoming China and transforming national fortunes in Cambodia and Saudi Arabia. It provides the catalyst that political leaders need to reform.
 
The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism
    Samuel Huntington once wrote in our pages about a "clash of civilizations." In the March/April 2008 issue of Foreign Affairs, Jerry Muller revisits this subject but gives it a twist, arguing that the real key to modern history and future conflict is ethnic nationalism.
    Summary: Americans generally belittle the role of ethnic nationalism in politics. But in fact, it corresponds to some enduring propensities of the human spirit, it is galvanized by modernization, and in one form or another, it will drive global politics for generations to come.
    Once ethnic nationalism has captured the imagination of groups in a multiethnic society, ethnic disaggregation or partition is often the least bad answer.
 
    There is probably something on your mind right now that you feel you need to share with someone important in your life. This truth, and whether or not you choose to share it, is actively playing a role in shaping your life. This is why it is so important to learn to speak the truth.
    [WAR: "These are the things you are to do: Speak the truth to each other..." (Zech 8:16)]
 
 
E-mail format for military: YAHOO! WARriors
Daily e-mail reminder: GOOGLE / YAHOO! / MSN
WAR fund: PayPal (payable to thedailywarrior@gmail.com)
 
 
 
 
Posted by at