Monday

The Daily WAR (12-22)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
 
 
    The wave of public service industry strikes that has hit Germany since mid-February could finally be at an end after public sector workers agreed a new pay deal with the federal government and local authorities.
 
    Bavarian bank Bayerische Landesbank (BayernLB) has said it is contemplating buying part of its struggling rival, IKB Deutsche Industriebank.
 
    At the moment, we are in the former stage of Germany's mental cycle, as everybody appears to believe in the tale that the world's largest exporter can somehow resist the credit crisis unscathed. Frankfurter Allgemeine had a very sobering report that the German labour market shows early signs of a severe downturn.
    A downturn is also happening in Austria - one of the euro area's best performing economies.
 
    President Bush will not demand Germany send combat troops to southern Afghanistan. But despite the conciliatory comments from Bush, the head of coalition forces in Afghanistan on Sunday called on Germany to deploy its rapid reaction force in the restive south as well as more troops in the relatively calm north.
 
 
 
   The French president was virtually casting aside 50 years of European integration during which the 2 countries learnt to work together, forge common positions and eschew narrow national interests for the larger good of Europe. Was France harking back to the 19th century concept of sovereignty whereby the big powers simply carved up the world into "spheres of influence"?
 
Sarkozy's most important motive for closer cooperation with London is France's intensifying rivalry with Germany
    In a 2-day visit to Britain last week, President Sarkozy worked for a closer alliance between the countries. He spoke before both houses of the British Parliament and utilised his address to advocate, in his own words, "a new Franco-British brotherhood for the 21st Century." He lavished praise on his audience, reaching far back into history to build a case for the close affinity between France and England.
    Sarkozy then elaborated on the éntente cordial that France and Great Britain agreed in 1904 to settle their dispute over North African colonies. He also detailed how this agreement laid the basis for their military alliance during WW1.
    The éntente cordial, he said, had now to be developed into an éntente amicable. Such an alliance, he said, would strengthen the weight of France and Great Britain in the European Union and in the world."
    As the last century's wars have shown: like 2 brothers, the French people and the British people can accomplish together far more than what they can achieve separately."
    Some commentators have interpreted Sarkozy's appearance in London as a prelude to a fundamental shift in political relations in Europe. They speak of France's turn away from the German-French axis, which had previously been the motor force behind the European Union, and a new orientation towards Great Britain and indirectly to the US, AIMED AT KEEPING THE ECONOMICALLY STRONGER GERMANY AT BAY.
    Many German commentators, in particular, have cited Sarkozy's references to the éntente cordial and the 2 world wars as evidence that his call for closer ties to London has an anti-German thrust. "Notwithstanding their conflict-rich histories, both sides are forging a new European axis of power—without Germany. It is apparent that a new awareness on both sides of the channel has been revealed, reviving an age-old problem in Europe."
    Sarkozy's London visit made clear how tense relations are within Europe and the tremendous problems that the ruling elites in France and Europe confront. And Sarkozy's state visit took place against the backdrop of the greatest crisis of the international financial system since the 1930s. Both France and Great Britain have been heavily impacted, despite the fact that the full consequences of the crisis have still to be felt.
 
    NATO, its chief insists, has no ambitions to become a "global policeman." But the military alliance born of the Cold War continues to grow and face new challenges. At a summit Wednesday through Friday in Romania, President Bush and the leaders of NATO's other 25 countries will discuss how to mobilize more troops to turn the tide in Afghanistan, and whether to get bigger and tougher at the risk of alienating Russia.
 
 
 
    Israeli Defence Minister and Labour leader Ehud Barak has suggested that his party may withdraw support from the government very soon, raising speculations about early general elections in the country.
 
    Palestinian President Abbas is calling for Arab and international forces in the Palestinian territories to protect against Israeli attacks.
 
    Syria's Foreign Minister said Damascus is prepared for all scenarios in its worsening relationship with Washington, including the use of US military force. "A prudent person must make all his calculations, especially when we have to deal with an administration which knows how to strike but does not know how to withdraw."
    He was responding to a question over whether Damascus feared "a US strike against Syria or Iran" if US diplomatic efforts fail to isolate Syria. "We hope that this will not happen. We hope for dialogue and an accord in order to avoid more American destruction to our region, and more deaths to the Americans."
 
    Iranian officials helped broker a cease-fire agreement Sunday between Iraq's government and radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, according to Iraqi lawmakers. The deal could help defuse a wave of violence that had threatened recent security progress in Iraq. It also may signal the growing regional influence of Iran.
 
Hassan al-Turabi is a central figure in the conflict
    If the international backers of the various rebel groups were serious about peace, they would create the conditions for negotiations to take place among the representative parties, with the Darfur rebels speaking with one voice.
    If they do not do so, the conclusion must be that they are further committed to fomenting war, with all the human suffering that entails, in the interests of breaking up the nation of Sudan into several separate entities, in a regional geopolitical gamble aimed at destabilization and raw materials resources theft.
 
    An escalating war of words across the world's last Cold War, nuclear-armed border spiraled dramatically yesterday when North Korea threatened to wreak total destruction on its neighbour to the south. "Our military will not sit idle until warmongers launch a pre-emptive strike. Everything will be in ashes, not just a sea of fire, if our advanced pre-emptive strike once begins."
 
    After 2 weeks in which China contended that Tibet's government in exile had instigated the riots earlier this month to tarnish the coming Summer Olympics in Beijing, the Chinese government on Sunday issued for the first time what it said was evidence of the plot.
 
    It's the end of the era of the white man. The West's moment is passing. Money and might are increasingly elsewhere. America's little dose of socialism from Ben Bernanke and Hank Paulson might stave off the worst but cannot halt the trend.
 
 
 
    President Ahmadinejad has hailed the establishment of the Islamic Republic as a pedestal for humanity's progress and perfection. Highlighting the importance of this historic day, the Iranian chief executive added that March 31st is an aide memoire that Allah bestowed sovereignty on the country.
 
    The Arab Summit wound up here on Sunday with a renewed call to Iran to end its occupation of the UAE islands of Abu Mousa, the Greater and Lesser Tunbs. The summit, which was presided over by Syrian President Al Assad, also condemned the incessant Iranian attempts to create a fait accompli by way of building settlements on the occupied islands.
    "The continued attempts by Iran to build settlements and conduct wargames in the territorial waters, air space, economic zones and coral reefs of the occupied islands, are all acts that constitute a gross violation of the UAE sovereignty and territorial integrity."
 
    The World Jewish Congress slams Switzerland's gas deal with Iran, describing it as a 'propagandistic triumph' for the Islamic Republic.
 
    The US has demanded to see a Swiss contract for natural gas supplies from Iran to see whether it violates an American sanctions law against Tehran, the US Embassy in Switzerland said.
 
War drummer...
    CIA chief Michael Hayden expressed his personal belief Sunday that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. "Personal belief, yes. It's hard for me to explain. This is not court of law stuff."
 
    The US Congress, the US media, the American people, and the UN, are looking the other way as Cheney prepares his attack on Iran. The chief of Russia's general staff, Yuri Baluyevsky, said last November that Russia was beefing up its military in response to US aggression, but that the Russian military is not "obliged to defend the world from the evil Americans."
 
 
 
    The bizarre tale of how the media turned a crooked Republican into the mirage of a principled politician.
 
    Bearing in mind that nobody ever accused John McCain of being a brilliant thinker even in his prime, you should be alert for signs of forgetfulness and confusion. Presidents don't have to fight or run marathons. They have to absorb and assess a great deal of information, often conflicting information, and they have to form very sound judgments.
    Unless they are going to be helpless captives of their staff, they have to be well-read and continue to read and to seek information "outside the box." Otherwise, they are just puppets and don't know it. Presidents need sharp minds and almost boundless energy.
 
    Rush Limbaugh isn't the only surprise supporter in Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign. Only thing is, this guy is for real. Continuing the transition from #1 Clinton media enemy to political ally, Richard Mellon Scaife, publisher of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and a principal owner of NewsMax.com, met with Hillary Clinton and pronounced he now has a favorable view of the presidential candidate and may even endorse her in the Pennsylvania primary.
 
    A Japanese member of Parliament told the Alex Jones Show yesterday that a potential new investigation of the 9/11 cover-up could be led by global parliamentarians he has been in contact with, or even by the United Nations itself. "I was in Europe meeting with European MP's and they are also thinking about asking the UN to investigate."
 
    Driven by a painful mix of layoffs and rising food and fuel prices, the number of Americans receiving food stamps is projected to reach 28 million in the coming year, the highest level since the aid program began in the 1960s. Federal benefit costs are projected to rise to $36 billion in the 2009 fiscal year from $34 billion this year.
 
 
 
    President Bush and Prime Minister Brown have agreed to step up co-operation over the crisis in financial markets. They are setting up a joint working group which will develop plans to monitor and regulate the banking system.
    At the heart of the proposals, agreed on Wednesday by Hank Paulson, US Treasury secretary, and Alistair Darling, UK chancellor, is the creation of a body made up of senior Treasury and regulatory figures from London and Washington.
 
    The euro is now within only a whisker of the 80 pence mark against the pound after inflation in the single currency zone jumped to a record high. Prices in the eurozone are rising at an annual rate of 3.5%, official figures showed today.
    The news undermines expectations that the European Central Bank will soon start cutting interest rates from their current level of 4%. Sterling was also depressed by fears over the slowing UK economy, in the wake of fresh figures highlighting the weakness of the housing market.
 
    For more than a decade, we Americans have been living on an economic San Andreas fault -- a foundation of fracturing competitiveness covered by unsustainable consumer spending with money borrowed from foreigners.
    A financial earthquake was inevitable. We don't know how high on the recession Richter scale the current crisis will take us, but it increasingly looks like, as they say in San Francisco, "The Big One."
 
    Be it ever so devalued, $1 trillion is a lot of dough. Yet that is the amount of defaults and writedowns Americans will likely witness before they emerge at the far side of the bursting credit bubble, estimates Charles R. Morris in his shrewd primer, "The Trillion Dollar Meltdown."
    That calculation assumes an orderly unwinding, which he doesn't expect. "The sad truth is that subprime is just the first big boulder in an avalanche of asset writedowns that will rattle on through much of 2008."
 
    Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson will reveal in full sweeping new plans today for streamlining a hodgepodge of regulation faulted for permitting the US mortgage crisis to balloon into a full-blown economic threat.
    The regulatory blueprint proposes vesting new powers as a "market stability regulator" in the Federal Reserve. It would give the U.S. central bank authority to demand that all financial system participants supply it with full information on their activities and grant the Fed a right to collaborate with other regulators in setting rules for their behavior.
 
    The proposal will do almost nothing to regulate the alphabet soup of sophisticated financial products that have fueled the current financial crisis. And it will not rein in practices that have been linked to the mortgage crisis, like packaging risky loans into securities carrying the highest ratings.
    Hedge funds and private equity firms, which for years have enjoyed freedom from government oversight, would finally fall under federal watch. But that oversight would be minimal, enabling the government to do little beyond collecting information until a wide-scale financial crisis has already occurred.
 
    The US Federal Reserve is examining the Nordic bank nationalisations of the 1990s as a possible interim solution to the US financial crisis. It is understood that Fed vice-chairman Don Kohn remains very concerned by the depth of the US crisis and is eyeing the Nordic approach for contingency options.
    An expatriate reflects on the cost of "free trade" for his adopted country of Costa Rica -- and his former home in the States.
 
    Venezuela is sending to China all the oil it previously shipped to a US refinery jointly owned with Exxon Mobil amid a legal battle between the OPEC nation and the US oil giant, Energy Minister Ramirez said on Friday.
 
    Food prices are soaring, a wealthier Asia is demanding better food and farmers can't keep up. In short, the world faces a food crisis and in some places it is already boiling over. Around the globe, people are protesting and governments are responding with often counterproductive controls on prices and exports -- a new politics of scarcity in which ensuring food supplies is becoming a major challenge for the 21st century.
 
 
 
 

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