Sunday

The Daily WAR (01-27)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
 
 
    In 1706, Britain, Holland and the Holy Roman Empire declare war on France.
 
    A German inventor has created a radar-evading camouflage paint in the deserts of the United Arab Emirates. An institute back in Germany tested the paint and discovered -- to everyone's surprise -- that it actually works. The German defense industry is starting to take an interest.
 
    Christian Social Union fears of suffering in the September Bavarian state election will allegedly lead to reinforcements for German troops in Afghanistan being delayed until October.
    A report in weekly news magazine Der Spiegel suggests that domestic political considerations of the centre-right Bavarian party will hold back the deployment of up to 3,500 soldiers until October.
    CSU politicians have already refused to send policemen to Afghanistan to train local police officers, for fear of attacks. The CSU has been losing support in its usually safe home state of Bavaria according to polls, and will be fighting the election without its previous long-term leader Edmund Stoiber.
 
 
[Europress]    [Russopress]
 
    Napoleon dismantled the 1,000-year-old Holy Roman Empire. When, in turn, Napoleon was defeated and his empire dismantled, all of Europe gathered in Vienna to put the continent back to rights. More than 200 states and princely houses sent delegates to the Congress.
    Five million people had died under Napoleon's war machine; millions more were displaced or injured. Europe's house sorely needed to be put in order. The 1814 Congress of Vienna -- despite its frivolities -- was a remarkable achievement.
 
Back to the future...
    Two weeks after the victory of Silvio Berlusconi in the Italian parliamentary elections, the city of Rome, which for decades has been governed by centre-left parties, has fallen into the hands of the right wing.
    On April 28, Gianni Alemanno, a long-time member of the fascist movement with close links to prominent right-wing extremists, was elected mayor of the Italian capital.
    When his victory was announced, his supporters responded in a manner powerfully evoking Italy under the dictator Mussolini. Chanting "Duce, Duce" they celebrated their so-called "liberation of Rome" by giving fascist salutes in front of the city's town hall.
 
    The European Union will open its own embassies under a plan critics fear represents a "power grab" by Brussels officials pushing for a federal superstate. The secret plan represents the first time that full EU embassies have been discussed seriously.
    The "Embassies of the Union" would be controlled by a new EU diplomatic service created by the Lisbon Treaty. Talks have so far remained behind closed doors. Officials fear political fallout over plans to implement the new Treaty before it has been fully ratified.
 
How the Netherlands fell out of love with Europe
    Over the past 60 years the Netherlands has been one of Europe's biggest success stories. Yet immigration and the rise of Islam have triggered a backlash. The Netherlands is a place that is now palpably fretful about its future.
    In truth, the Dutch have parted company with their southern neighbours over the EU. Belgium and Luxembourg are almost the only card-carrying federalists left. Nowadays it would be easier to create a pioneering group of Eurosceptical countries than one hoping to march towards a United States of Europe.
    And everywhere (not just in Eurosceptical countries), the feeling has grown that the EU and its treaties are elite projects that may please self-serving Eurocrats but are remote from the concerns of ordinary citizens.
 
The EU cannot agree over how to deal with Russia. That suits the Kremlin just fine
    In recent years Russia has played a canny game of divide and rule against the EU, building cosy bilateral relations with Germany and Italy especially, but also with Austria, Bulgaria, the Netherlands and Greece.
    That makes other countries, and many Eurocrats, uneasy. They would like the EU to bargain more effectively with Russia, particularly over energy. But how?
 
    Tomislav Nikolic, leader of Serbia's far-right Radical Party, wants to be clear about one thing in particular: He is not the political reincarnation of Slobodan Milosevic. Not that he thinks Milosevic was all that bad. The problem with Milosevic, he says, is that he never finished what he started.
    There is growing alarm among leading Serbian liberals and Western leaders who fear that a victory by the Radical Party, which governed Yugoslavia in coalition with Milosevic and backed his wars, could plunge Serbia into a new confrontation with the West and further economic isolation.
 
 
 
    But after 60 years of embattled independence, the Jewish state is in more danger than ever before.
 
    The 60 years that passed since the founding of Israel have been traumatic, particularly for the Palestinian people.
 
    The Sea of Galilee, Israel's main source of fresh water, is dropping rapidly and could reach the dreaded "black line" - below which it is impossible to pump out any more water - in just 3 months. Over the week-long Passover holiday the Galilee dropped by an alarming 6 centimeters.
    Israel's only other fresh-water reservoirs - 2 mountain acquifers - have also been badly depleted in recent years, and can only go down to a certain level before sea-water pressing in underground from the Mediterranean makes its water brackish and unfit for human consumption.
 
    When a supporter of Prime Minister Olmert said Saturday "That's it, it's over," it was not clear whether he was asking a question or stating a fact. This was a statement repeated in different words over and over during the weekend - by ministers, MKs and political allies.
    Like everyone else, they were all in the dark, driven by rumors, hints, innuendos, flying through the cellular telephony at tremendous speeds.
 
    America and the world's leading powers have urged Israel to stop building homes inside West Bank settlements as they renewed their pledge to agree the birth of a Palestinian state by December.
 
    Damascus has accused the US administration of fabricating a report allegedly proving Syria had built a nuclear reactor in a plot to destabilize the region.
    "US allegations about the reactor were manufactured in order to create further crisis in the Middle East. We call upon member states to exercise caution and not to follow as other people have followed the vein of an administration which can only be described as madness."
 
The recent glimpses of a snarling China should scare the country's government as much as the world
    China is in a frightening mood. The sight of thousands of Chinese people waving xenophobic fists suggests that a country on its way to becoming a superpower may turn out to be a more dangerous force than optimists had hoped.
    But it isn't just foreigners who should be worried by these scenes: the Chinese government, which has encouraged this outburst of nationalism, should also be afraid. Chinese rage has focused on the alleged "anti-China" bias of the Western press, which is accused of ignoring violence by Tibetans in the unrest in March.
    From this starting-point China's defenders have gone on to denounce the entire edifice of Western liberal democracy as a sham. Using its tenets to criticise China is, they claim, sheer hypocrisy.
 
 
 
    Iran has loomed large in the Indian debate due to the divergence between New Delhi and Washington, DC over the manner in which each has perceived Tehran -- particularly after the election of Ahmadinejad as the Iranian President in 2005.
    Central Asia with Iran as a major gas supplier is the arena where the new 'great-game' is being played out and China, India and Japan are all seeking to protect their respective energy interests for the medium term -- and pipeline politics is the new instrumentality.
 
Tain't gonna happen...
    America was forced to make fresh concessions to Iran today as foreign ministers from 6 world powers finalised a secret offer of incentives for Tehran to scrap its nuclear programme. Diplomats said US hopes for increasing pressure on Iran throughout the summer lay behind yesterday's capitulation.
 
    The head of MI6 is to visit Israel later this month as Britain forges closer links with Mossad, the Israeli intelligence service. Iran's nuclear programme is expected to be high on the agenda in an intelligence-sharing process described by Israeli officials as a "strategic dialogue".
    It is building on long-standing cooperation between MI6 and Mossad, both of which have extensive spy networks in the Middle East. It is understood that Israel has made a breakthrough in intelligence-gathering within Iran.
 
    The Bush administration and Israeli government appear to be operating a joint disinformation campaign, whose objective is to establish a media based alternative reality from which to accuse Syria/Iran of developing nuclear weapons with help from North Korea, by using a real event combined with planted stories establishing a defining narrative.
    The immediate purpose of this disinformation campaign is apparently to help justify the planned US attack on a wide range of Iranian industrial and military targets. And, as in the Israeli attacks on Lebanon,  the objective is to swiftly inflict substantial damage to the national infrastructure of Iran.
 
    The repeated allegation that the worst threat to the shaky US position in Iraq is Iran should raise worries about a cowboy attack on Iran before the Bush admin leaves office.
 
    Six weeks ago, President Bush signed a secret finding authorizing a covert offensive against the Iranian regime that, according to those familiar with its contents, "unprecedented in its scope."
    Bush's secret directive covers actions across a huge geographic area – from Lebanon to Afghanistan – but is also far more sweeping in the type of actions permitted under its guidelines – up to and including the assassination of targeted officials.
 
    The US military is drawing up plans for a "surgical strike" against an insurgent training camp inside Iran if Republican Guards continue with attempts to destabilise Iraq, western intelligence sources said.
    "If the situation in Basra goes back to what it was like before, America is likely to blame Iran and carry out a surgical strike on a militant training camp across the border in Khuzestan," said one source.
 
    On April 29, a 2nd American aircraft carrier, the USS Abraham Lincoln, arrived in the Persian Gulf in what observers see as a tacit declaration of war on the Islamic Republic of Iran. The arrival of the warship follows stepped-up US rhetoric against Iran, accusing Tehran of meddling in Iraq and destabilizing the region.
    The possible attack of the two bullying powers on Iran is hanging like a sword of Damocles over the country. What has so far prevented the warmongering US government or its minion, Israel from waging another bloody war in the region remains unclear.
 
 
 
    On a quiet, blossom-filled street on the outskirts of Washington an extraordinary gathering took place recently in the house of Richard Perle, the former Pentagon adviser and Iraq hawk.
 
    Barack Obama is doing more harm to the Democratic cause by echoing Republican attack lines on issues such as insurance mandates and Social Security.
 
    "White flight" from Obama has been gathering force since Clinton's nine-point victory in last month's Pennsylvania primary. If Obama's support among the white working class reaches new lows, Clinton believes she can persuade a majority of superdelegates – the party officials with a casting vote at the convention – to back her.
 
    I'll tell you exactly why liberals, both black and white, have been shredding, obsessing over and questioning the motives of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright. He is what people in the Old South used to call an "uppity (N-word)."
    He does not lower his eyes, bow and scrape, eat crow or humble pie, or apologize. If you insult him, he'll insult you back. I like the guy a whole lot. I disagree with him on some points, but I've come to like and admire him. He makes a better speech than most candidates, and certainly a better and more intelligent one than the so-called pundits.
    As for Wright's views, they are not that radical taken in context.
 
 
 
    Futures traders are betting for the first time since December 2005 that the dollar will gain against the euro.
 
    Speculation that the euro's 7-year bull run was coming to an end intensified on Thursday as the single currency fell to 5-week lows against the dollar and the pound.
 
Sentiment has improved, but lots of financial problems remain
    Is it really over? In the middle of March investors were worried that the financial system was going to hell in a handcart. Analysts competed to produce the highest possible forecast for losses from the credit crunch.
    Just 6 weeks later, everything seems a lot calmer. Maybe financial Armageddon had been avoided. Maybe. But the fight ahead still looks bloody. Although the system as a whole is safer, plenty of problems remain for particular banks.
 
    The Labor Department reported Friday that the US economy lost a net total of 20,000 jobs in April, marking the 4th consecutive month of overall job losses.
    The employment report, combined with other data on economic growth, retail sales, consumer spending and wages, provides a picture of an economy sinking deeper into recession and a population in increasingly desperate financial straits.
 
    Pause and reflect upon the numbers, Plunge Protection Team keeps the reality hidden, Yen manipulations, impacts from inflating economy out of recession, Mississippi drowning, farmers starved out of business due to fuel and fertilizer costs, cost nightmares for health benefits...
 
    The Federal Reserve, seeking to prevent a deeper economic slowdown, took another stab at coaxing banks into lending at lower rates. The Fed boosted its biweekly Term Auction Facility sales of cash to banks by 50% to $75 billion and expanded the collateral it takes from bond dealers through loans of Treasury securities.
    It also raised the amount of dollars it makes available to the European Central Bank and Swiss National Bank through swap lines to a combined $62 billion from $36 billion.
 
    A month after the Federal Reserve rescued Bear Stearns Cos. from bankruptcy, Chairman Ben Bernanke got an S.O.S. from Congress. There is "a potential crisis in the student-loan market" requiring "similar bold action," Chairman Christopher Dodd of Connecticut and 6 other Democrats wrote Bernanke.
    Student loans are just the start. Former Fed officials and other Fed-watchers say that Bernanke's actions in saving Bear Stearns will expose the central bank to continuing pressure to use its $889 billion balance sheet to prop up companies or entire industries deemed important by politicians.
 
    Siegfried & Roy were one of Las Vegas's most popular acts until 2003, when Roy Horn, the trainer of big cats, was attacked by a tiger. He has still not recovered. Siegfried was an illusionist. We call these people magicians, but the magic they employ is illusion.
    The more I think of it, the more I see Ben Bernanke as the replacement for Siegfried & Roy. The show must go on. The illusionist relies on his ability to get the audience to look at one thing while he manipulates something else.
 
Disentangling the links between the Fed, the falling dollar and the soaring price of the world's commodities
    A growing chorus worries that ever lower policy rates are adding to America's problems. Some prominent economists have urged the central bank to stop. Fed cuts, they argue, are doing little to reduce borrowing costs but have sent commodity prices soaring—fuelling inflation and hitting Americans' wallets hard.
 
    Oil prices are soaring and show no sign of slowing. We analyse the cause and what the rise means for the economy.
 
    The price of crude oil today is not made according to any traditional relation of supply to demand. It's controlled by an elaborate financial market system as well as by the 4 major Anglo-American oil companies.
    As much as 60% of today's crude oil price is pure speculation driven by large trader banks and hedge funds. It has nothing to do with the convenient myths of Peak Oil. It has to do with control of oil and its price.
 
    Giant agribusinesses are enjoying soaring earnings and profits out of the world food crisis which is driving millions of people towards starvation. And speculation is helping to drive the prices of basic foodstuffs out of the reach of the hungry.
 
    Humanity is undergoing in the post-Cold War era an economic and social crisis of unprecedented scale leading to the rapid impoverishment of large sectors of the World population. National economies are collapsing, unemployment is rampant. Local level famines have erupted in Sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and parts of Latin America.
    This Worldwide crisis is more devastating than the Great Depression of the 1930s. It has far-reaching geo-political implications; economic dislocation has also been accompanied by the outbreak of regional wars, the fracturing of national societies and in some cases the destruction of entire countries. By far this is the most serious economic crisis in modern history.
 
    The Asian Development Bank has warned that the crisis of rising food prices could reverse gains made in reducing poverty across the continent. Asia has 66% of the world's poor, with about 1.7 billion people earning $2 a day or lower.
 
 
 
 

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