Sunday

The Daily WAR (03-25)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
    Addressing an issue that has commanded an astonishing degree of attention from the secular media, the Vatican newspaper has reported that Pope Benedict XVI does not wear shoes designed by Prada.
 
    As Tom Hanks, Ron Howard and the rest of the cast and crew of "Angels and Demons" wrap up filming, the Dan Brown effect is on many minds here in Rome.
    Like "The Da Vinci Code," "Angels and Demons" stars Hanks as Robert Langdon, a Harvard professor of art history and religious symbology. This time, he finds himself desperately trying to stop the Illuminati, a secret society determined to destroy the Vatican.
    Filming began in Rome on June 4 and has been fiercely protected. The production even worked under a fake title to throw autograph-seekers off the scent. "They billed the film as 'Obelisk.' Obelisks play a starring role in the plot.
 
 
 
    Germans were unfurling their flags and applying the black, red and gold face-paints this morning as football fever approached its climax for the team's Euro 2008 final against Spain.
    From Chancellor Merkel downwards, Germans will be cheering on "Schweini", "Poldi" and their teammates in a nation now much more comfortable with being patriotic ever since the 2006 World Cup was held on home soil.
 
    In the past few weeks, longstanding conflicts in the Social Democratic Party have reached a boiling point. While the conflicts in the SPD are not new, they are now assuming increasingly antagonistic forms in a party that is suffering a severe loss of membership and a slump in popularity, according to opinion polls.
 
    Left Party intends to apply to the Constitutional Court to have the EU's reform treaty, the Treaty of Lisbon, declared unconstitutional, the minority socialist party announced Thursday. The Left sees the treaty as giving too much power to the European Council, the council of the heads of state and government, at the expense of national parliaments and the European Parliament.
    A maverick member of parliament, Peter Gauweiler of the Bavarian Christian Social Union, has applied to the court to strike down the Treaty of Lisbon on similar grounds. Although both houses of parliament have passed the treaty, President Koehler has delayed signing it into law pending a decision by the Constitutional Court.
 
 
 
    On 1 July France takes over chairmanship of the 6-month rotating presidency of the council of the European Union. France takes up the helm during one of the EU's – and the world's – most difficult periods in many years as the twin oil and food crises eclipse almost every other policy agenda item, and the fall-out of the negative result in the Irish referendum on the Lisbon Treaty leaves much of France's plans for its moment in the European spotlight not quite on the shelf but certainly diminished in import.
 
    President Sarkozy has laid out 4 priorities for France's 6-month presidency of the European Union starting this week. Here is an outline of the issues at stake.
 
    The ultra-Europeans have overplayed their hand. We can now glimpse a chain of events that will halt, and reverse, this extremist push towards an Über-state that almost no one wants.
    The attempt to override the triple "No" votes of the French, Dutch, and Irish peoples has brought the EU to a systemic crisis of legitimacy. A line too many has been crossed. Any sentient citizen can see that the process has become unhinged.
    While "Europe" blunders on as if nothing has happened, it is now an open question whether the Lisbon Treaty will ever come into force, whether the EU will ever acquire the machinery of an economic, diplomatic, and military power, and whether the euro will ever have a polity to back it up.
    Henceforth, Brussels will struggle to retain powers already amassed. Functions will flow back to the nation states. And the fast-moving events of the past 2 weeks must have market consequences.
    Note that Germany's foreign minister said Ireland should "exit" the EU temporarily. Did he forget that Ireland is an integral part of monetary union? His reflex is not only unpleasant, it also reveals that Germany views peripheral members of the eurozone as dispensable. It is an invitation for hedge funds to "short" EMU bonds from Club Med states.
    Can one still presume that Germany will do whatever it takes to shore up EMU in a crisis, if only to safeguard its half-century investment in Europe's new order? Clearly, the euro break-up risk has been hugely mispriced.
    The survival of EMU does not depend on Lisbon as such, although the failure of the treaty would make it harder for the EU to orchestrate a covert bail out. But there is a deeper issue at stake. As the Bundesbank warned long ago, EMU will eventually buckle under strain over time without the cement of political union.
    The elites will now have to face the great euro storm of 2008-9...
 
    Did neo-cons from the US fund the campaign in Ireland to reject the Lisbon Treaty? Accusations to that effect are widespread -- particularly given the business contacts of a leading group in the "no" camp.
    The words were clear: "Europe has powerful enemies on the other side of the Atlantic, gifted with considerable financial means." The speaker was France's Europe Minister, addressing a pro-European rally in Lyon at the weekend.
    He was putting the blame for the Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty on some surprising shoulders: neoconservatives in the US. "The role of the American neocons was very important in the victory of the 'no,'" he said.
 
    Kosovo's Serbs inaugurated their own assembly Saturday in defiance of the UN and Kosovo's Albanian majority who proclaimed independence 4 months ago. The parliament has officially dubbed itself the Assembly of the Union of Municipalities of the Autonomous Province of Kosovo and drafted what it sees as its mandate.
 
 
 
    In recent years, with the Palestinian population under Israeli rule about to reach parity with the Jewish population, the threat of a Palestinian majority has loomed large again for the Zionists.
    Not surprisingly, debates about which of these 2 Zionist solutions to pursue, separation or transfer, have resurfaced. The modern political arguments between them turn on differing visions of the nature of a Jewish state originally put forward by Labor and Revisionist Zionists.
 
    Turkish Kurd rebel chief Murat Karayilan on Saturday urged Turkey to hold talks with his guerrilla group rather than forming an anti-Kurdish alliance with Iran and Syria.
 
    Vice President Cheney fought furiously to block efforts by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to strike a controversial US compromise deal with North Korea over the communist state's nuclear programme, the Telegraph has learned.
    "The exchanges between Cheney's office and Rice's people at State got very testy. But ultimately Condi had the President's ear and persuaded him that his legacy would be stronger if they reached a deal with Pyongyang."
 
    Hassan Abdellah al-Turabi, the leader of the Islamist opposition Popular Congress Party said Darfur rebels destabilized the authority of the Sudanese government when they perpetrated on the capital last month.
 
 
 
    If there were any substance to Condi Rice's repeated assertions, that the strife over Iran's nuclear program could, and preferably should, be solved through diplomatic means, then one would expect her to seize on recent offers made by Iranian figures, designed to facilitate the start of talks.
    Although widely ignored in the international press, highly significant statements were made at an international conference in Berlin June 24-25, by 2 authoritative Iranian spokesmen. Both said explicitly that Tehran would be willing to freeze its uranium enrichment, and to provide for concrete mechanisms to guarantee that its enrichment program would not, and could not, be geared to weapons production.
    Instead of acknowledging these ostentatious gestures of good will, the US surged ahead with new legislation to introduce yet more sanctions against Iran, which are clearly designed to prepare a military aggression.
 
    Iran has moved ballistic missiles into launch positions, with Israel's Dimona nuclear plant among the possible targets, defence sources said. They said Iran was preparing to retaliate for any onslaught by firing missiles at Dimona, where Israel's own nuclear weapons are believed to be made.
 
    The head of Iran's powerful Revolutionary Guards has threatened to hurt Western economies by cutting off Gulf oil supplies if his country's nuclear facilities are attacked.
    About 40% of all world oil exports flow through the 35-mile wide Strait of Hormuz, banked along its northern side by Iran. With world oil supplies already constricted, any Iranian action could push energy prices through the roof.
 
    A former head of Mossad has warned that Israel has 12 months in which to destroy Iran's nuclear programme or risk coming under nuclear attack itself. He also hinted that Israel might have to act sooner if Barack Obama wins the US presidential election.
 
    Israel won't rule out a military attack on Iran, according to Isaac Ben-Israel of the ruling Kadima party. The former air force general told Spiegel that: "If necessary, we will use force."
    The former general acknowledged that the Israeli air force had recently carried out maneuvers, which he said were to prepare for the eventuality that the international community failed to stop the Iranian nuclear activities.
 
    The visit by US Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman Admiral Mike Mullen to Israel Friday is one more indication that the 2 countries are actively discussing a military strike on Iran. Few details of Mullen's latest trip are available, but a Pentagon spokesman did acknowledge that Iran was at the top of the agenda.
    Two other top US military officers were also in Israel this week. Chief of Naval Operations Admiral Gary Roughead met with his Israeli counterpart, as did General William Wallace, commander of the US Army Training and Doctrine Command. Roughead's presence is particularly significant, as the US navy would be central in countering any Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf following an Israeli strike.
 
The Bush Administration steps up its secret moves against Iran
    Clandestine operations against Iran are not new. US Special Operations Forces have been conducting cross-border operations from southern Iraq, with Presidential authorization, since last year.
    But the scale and the scope of the operations in Iran, which involve the CIA and the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC), have now been significantly expanded.
 
    "Expressing the sense of Congress regarding the threat posed to international peace, stability in the Middle East, and the vital national security interests of the United States by Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons and regional hegemony, and for other purposes."
 
The finishing touches on several contingency plans for attacking Iran
    We bring to the attention of our readers David DeBatto's scenario as to what might occur if one of the several  contingency plans to attack Iran, with the participation of Israel and NATO, were to be carried out. While one may disagree with certain elements of detail of the author's text, the thrust of this analysis must be taken seriously.
 
    One gets the impression that there are some people in Washington who believe that Israel or the U.S. can bomb Iran's nuclear reactors, fly home, and it will be mission complete.
    It makes you wonder if perhaps there is a virus going around that is gradually making people stupid. If we or Israel attack Iran, we will have a new war on our hands. The Iranians are not going to shrug off an attack and say, "You naughty boys, you."
    Attacking Iran would be folly, but we seem to be living in the Age of Folly. Who would have thought that we would become the rogue nation committing acts of aggression around the globe?
 
 
 
 
    In his new book, The Prosecution of George W. Bush for Murder, Vincent Bugliosi, the man who successfully prosecuted Charles Manson for murder, argues convincingly that President Bush's conduct in taking the US military to war against Iraq under false pretenses in March of 2003 qualifies him to be prosecuted for murder in any state in the nation.
 
    Gore Vidal, US novelist, historian and social critic says the Bush regime has killed all of the constitutional links that made the US a republic.
 
    Federal officials responsible for coping with the aftermath of a possible nuclear attack in the US are not fully confident of the government's readiness to deal with such a disaster, they told a Senate hearing Thursday.
 
Need or want?...
    Everybody knows it, but it took a tacky Republican operator to come right out and say it. Charlie Black, John McCain's campaign adviser, recently let drop to Fortune magazine that another terrorist attack on US soil would be a "big advantage" for the Republican presidential candidate.
 
    Barack Obama, seeking to polish up his foreign policy credentials, announced Saturday he would visit major US allies in Europe and the Middle East before the November election.
    [WAR: The neocons/Republicans could get 2 birds with 1 bomb: 1) Take out Obama, and 2) Blame it on Iran.]
 
 
 
    When Congress started fashioning a sweeping rescue package for struggling homeowners earlier this year, 2.6 million loans were in trouble. But the problem has grown considerably in just 6 months and is continuing to worsen.
    More than 3 million borrowers are in distress, and analysts are forecasting a couple of million more will fall behind on their payments in the coming year as home prices fall further and the economy weakens.
 
    Global stock markets suffered a sell-off last week sparked by concerns about the global economy and crude oil prices which have hit a new record.
 
    Fortis Bank (Netherlands/Belgium) expects a complete collapse of the US financial markets within a few days to weeks. That explains, according to Fortis, the series of interventions of last Thursday to retrieve € 8 billion. "We have been saved just in time. The situation in the US is much worse than we thought", says Fortis chairman Maurice Lippens. Fortis expects bankruptcies amongst 6000 American banks which have a small coverage currently. But also Citigroup, General Motors, there is starting a complete meltdown in the US."
 
    Barclays Capital has advised clients to batten down the hatches for a worldwide financial storm, warning that the US Federal Reserve has allowed the inflation genie out of the bottle and let its credibility fall "below zero".
    "We're in a nasty environment," said the bank's chief equity strategist. "There is an inflation shock underway. This is going to be very negative for financial assets. We are going into tortoise mood and are retreating into our shell. Investors will do well if they can preserve their wealth."
 
    For my entire adult life, I've assumed - and argued - that "Anglo-Saxon" policy-makers are best. Give me free markets and low tax any time. Not for me the cloying statism of Continental Europe.
    It's hard not to notice, though, that since sub-prime exploded last summer, while the US Federal Reserve has made a hash of it, the European Central Bank has played its cards quite well.
    In theory, America's central bankers - having been educated in the Anglo-Saxon tradition - should be the most vigilant about inflation, the most determined to rebuff populist pressures.
    And one would have expected the eurocrats of the European Central Bank - trained in les grandes écoles and the German corporatist school - to react to a financial crisis by caving in and bowing down to their political masters.
    But it hasn't happened. The Fed has cut rates willy-nilly while the ECB has stood firm.
 
    Humiliation for Mr. Dollar: Ben Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, faces an investigation by the International Monetary Fund. Just one more example of the Fed losing its power.
    Officials with the IMF have informed Bernanke about a plan that would have been unheard-of in the past: a general examination of the US financial system. The IMF's board of directors has ruled that a so-called Financial Sector Assessment Program is to be carried out in the US. It is nothing less than an X-ray of the entire US financial system.
 
    Jürgen Stark, the chief economist of the European Central Bank, speaks with Spiegel about the growing threat of inflation, planned interest-rate increases and the consequences of the financial crisis.
 
    Rising commodity prices are squeezing profits and putting manufacturers and suppliers at each others' throats. Ultimately, consumers may have to pay more as the costs are passed along.
 
    OPEC's president predicted that the price of oil will climb to $170 a barrel before the end of the year, citing the dollar's decline and political conflicts.
 
    The global economy would collapse if oil hit $200 a barrel, said the top energy analyst at Germany's largest bank.
 
    Honeybees are vanishing at alarming rates across the US and researchers are struggling to pinpoint the exact cause of the decline, experts told a Congressional panel Thursday. And they warn that the mysterious disorder afflicting the bees could have serious environmental and economic consequences.
    Food prices, already rising due to high fuel prices and weeks of Midwest floods, are likely to rise even higher with the scarcity of healthy bees.
 
    You. Will. Not. Be. Able. To. Get. Food. Need this be spelled out any more plainly? It is time to consider that the stage has been set for petroleum-induced famine. We are headed for massive shortages of food and other essentials, mainly brought about by the depletion of geological fossil reserves of cheap energy and water.
    Three days is our average food supply around the modernized world, i.e., for cities and their supermarkets. Long-term food stocks have plummeted.
 
 
[Latest edition of The Religion WAR]
 
    World shortages of petroleum and the belief that supplies will become too scarce are driving some to seek an oil-free lifestyle. As 'The Archers' brings to the fore the idea of a self-sufficient community, Rowena Mason asks whether this new movement is the product of panic or a common-sense solution.
 
 

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