Wednesday

The Daily WAR (04-19)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
    [WAR: I'm not starting the WAR back up just yet. I'm still in Texas, and my grandfather is still in the hospital. But I woke-up early this morning and thought I'd go ahead and post an issue today. So until next time...]
 
 
 
    Pope Benedict XVI has retired to Castel Gandolfo, his summer residence near Rome, to spend a few days recuperating from his 9-day Australian tour, the Vatican says.
 
    Now, they say Benedict is the "green Pope." You see this in Time and Newsweek, and especially because of the Pope's emphasis, during his trip to Australia, on forsaking greed and protecting what God made around us.
    The Pope is not "green" -- which conjures images of the far political left. Benedict XVI is a conservationist. He is a conservative. He wants to conserve -- save, preserve.
 
EU not "holy" enough "empire"...
    The Pope has rejected an invitation to address the European Parliament, amid Vatican alarm at what is seen as a drift towards militant secularism.
    The breakdown in confidence between the Pope and the European Parliament is a sensitive area and observers close to the dispute are unwilling to be identified publicly. One spoke of the church hierarchy's "great disillusionment" with the European project.
    Its founding fathers, Konrad Adenauer and Robert Schuman, were deeply Catholic. However, a well-informed observer said that the EU "has become more and more secularist".
 
 
 
    Bavaria's Christian Social Union opened a 2-day party congress in Nuremberg last Friday locked in a tax dispute with its Christian Democratic Union ally 2 months ahead of elections in Germany's largest state.
    CSU Chairman Erwin Huber predicted the party, which has held power in the southern state since 1959, would hang on to the overall majority it has maintained since 1962, despite signs the party is losing ground.
    Recent polls place the CSU on or near 50%, down from the 60% the party secured under long-term premier and party chief Edmund Stoiber in 2003.
 
    Chancellor Angela Merkel pledged Monday to help Ukraine implement reforms to bring the former Soviet republic into NATO, a prospect strongly opposed by Russia.
    As she met with Ukrainian leaders on a 1-day visit, Russia criticized Ukraine's energy policy in what appeared to be a reminder of the country's - and Europe's - dependency on Russian oil and gas.
 
    In Berlin for talks with Chancellor Merkel, Iraqi PM al-Maliki spoke to DW about how his battle-scarred country is getting back on its feet, and ready to welcome foreign companies.
 
    Barack Obama's visit to Berlin has upset officials in other European capitals who feel he is slighting their countries. The French and British are feeling neglected.
 
 
 
    The Irish rejection of the Lisbon Treaty has sent shockwaves across the EU. But the treaty is still no lost cause, says German Foreign Minister Steinmeier in an exclusive essay for DW-World.
 
    Russia has finally recovered. It has risen from its knees and is ready for the next stage – forcing the rest of the world to their knees. The new concept for Russian foreign policy was presented last week by President Medvedev.
 
    Hugo Chavez, the Venezuelan president, has called for a strategic relationship with Russia to counter aggression from the US. Chavez was given correspondingly warm welcome as he met with one old friend, prime minister Vladimir Putin, and one new one in the form of president Dmitry Medvedev.
    Medvedev was particularly effusive, describing Venezuela as Russia's "most important partner".
 
    Quite a chess game is being played in the region, one which has the potential to detonate a major escalation of tensions between Moscow and NATO.
 
 
 
    A perfect storm of enmity has come down on the beleaguered Turkish secularists, who find themselves without friends. That is a tragedy whose consequences will spill over Turkey's borders.
 
    Barack Obama pledged yesterday to work for peace between Israel and the Palestinians from his first day in office, hours before arriving in the region where he faces a sceptical audience on both sides of the conflict.
    The Democratic presidential candidate, who is struggling to win over Jewish voters in America and is viewed with suspicion in Israel, holds meetings in Jerusalem and the West Bank today during the thorniest leg of his international tour.
 
    Sudan's president has said he is "not worried" by International Criminal Court (ICC) accusations against him, during a rare visit to Darfur. "We're here to send a message to the world, we're people of peace, we want peace, we're the ones who make peace. Ocampo [of the ICC] talk does not worry us. We know who's behind him and who's pulling his strings."
 
Good-bye Bashir, hello Turabi?!...
    It should be noted that Bashir and his sometimes ally and sometimes nemesis Hasan al Turabi, have jointly and separately presided over state-sponsored meetings of radical Islamist terrorist organizations from around the world, as well as sheltering and nurturing al Qaeda and protecting Osama bin Laden. Not a pretty picture.
 
    British imperialists escalated their ongoing destabilization of Africa on July 14, with the decision by Luis Moreno-Ocampo, prosecutor for the International Criminal Court, to file charges of "genocide and crimes against humanity" against Sudanese President Gen. Omar al-Bashir.
    The British and their collaborators want to eliminate the sovereignty of African nations, so that Africa's population can be greatly reduced, thus ensuring that Africa does not "use up" its vast resource wealth for its own development, and for trade with Asia, China in particular.
    There is no mistake of the timing, the intent, and the forces behind this unprecedented action, which is premised on completely false charges. It is intended to blow apart Sudan's North-South peace settlement, plunging the country even deeper into civil war.
    The consequences of the ICC's decision, if not reversed, not only would be devastating to Sudan, and the stability of the Horn of Africa, but because of Sudan's strategic importance, the entire continent would bleed.
 
    Cambodia has appealed for the UN Security Council to diffuse an "imminent state of war" on its border with Thailand. Since last week the two countries have ranged hundreds of troops and artillery against one another.
    At the centre of the dispute is the 900-year-old ruined temple of Preah Vihear, spectacularly perched on a frontier hilltop, and 1.8 sq miles of disputed jungle at its base. In a letter to the UN, the Cambodian premier Hun Sen, said: "Thai behaviour gravely threatens peace and stability in the region."
 
 
 
    President Ahmadinejad said the Persian Gulf country will resist pressure from world powers to halt its nuclear program. "They said Iran has surrendered. They are mistaken. If the great powers think they can sit down and discuss Iran's rights and pressurize Iranians, such a thing won't happen in 100 years."
 
    European Union foreign ministers on Tuesday called for further diplomacy in dealing with concerns over Iran's nuclear programme and ruled out a military strike as an option.
 
    In the wake of talks in Geneva last weekend, the Bush administration is increasing the pressure on Iran to agree to negotiations over an international incentives package in return for shutting down its uranium enrichment and other nuclear programs.
    Whatever the final outcome of the debate in Tehran and Washington, the 2-week deadline is looming as a turning point in the protracted crisis.
 
Don't be fooled by Washington's diplomatic overtures to Tehran
    The conventional wisdom is that the US government is taking a new tack when it comes to confronting the Iranians. This is flat out wrong. The war drums are still belting out a martial ditty, albeit accompanied by a "diplomatic" chorus.
    The Europeans, who tend to resent Washington's unbridled arrogance, don't want a war that would wreck the world economy. They can't be trusted to deliver our intended message to Tehran: surrender or die. This is just foreplay – if such a thing can be said of an intended rape.
 
    DEBKAfile's military sources report that Operational Brimstone, which started on Monday, is aimed at giving military teeth to the 2-week ultimatum the 6world powers gave Iran in Geneva Saturday to accept the suspension of uranium enrichment or face harsh sanctions and isolation.
    The exercise is scheduled to end July 31 -- 2 days before the US-European ultimatum to Iran expires. Immediately after the Geneva talks ended in failure, the US State Department issued a statement giving Tehran the option of "cooperation or confrontation."
 
    On yesterday's edition of The 700 Club, Pat Robertson sharply criticized the "moderate tone" the Bush administration has allegedly taken toward Iran and its nuclear weapons program.
    Robertson advocated that Israel look out for the "survival of its nation" and "make some kind of a strike" against Iranian nuclear facilities. He also predicted that it will likely happen before the 2008 elections.
 
    Israel will "almost surely" strike Iran's nuclear sites in the coming months — and if the conventional attacks fail to destroy or at least delay Iran's nuclear program, the Middle East will face a nuclear war.
    [WAR: Ignore "Hawk's Analysis" at the bottom of the article -- it's just a bunch if jibberish.]
 
 
 
    Many people deny that the US government presides over a global empire. If you speak of US imperialism, they will fancy that you must be a decrepit Marxist-Leninist who has recently awakened after spending decades in a coma.
    Yet the facts cannot be denied, however much people's ideology may predispose them to distort or obfuscate those facts. How can a government that maintains more than 800 military facilities in more than 140 different foreign countries be anything other than an imperial power?
 
    Apparently the Government is expecting a half million people to die relatively soon, and the Atlanta Airport is a major airline traffic hub, probably the biggest in the country, which means Georgia is a prime base to conduct military operations and coordination.
    I don't want to alarm anyone, but usually you don't buy 500,000 plastic coffins "just in case something happens," you buy them because you know something is going to happen.
 
    A Continental Airlines flight carrying 7 members of Congress from Houston to Washington was forced to make an emergency landing after it lost cabin pressure Tuesday afternoon.
 
    Whether we like it or not, America is in the midst of revolutionary economic changes that are crushing the middle class.
 
 
 
    It feels like the summer of 1931. The world's two biggest financial institutions have had a heart attack. The global currency system is breaking down. The policy doctrines that got us into this mess are bankrupt.
    No world leader seems able to discern the problem, let alone forge a solution.Should our leaders mismanage affairs, almost every part of the global system will go down together. Then we are in trouble.
 
     General Motors Corp. and Ford Motor Co. have about a 46% chance of default within 5 years.
(Cartoons: SUV sales stall)
 
    European banks will write down a further $27.7 billion this year and cut dividends in 2009 as they catch up with US rivals in marking down leveraged loans and subprime assets, JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts said today.
 
    Washington Mutual Inc. said Tuesday it lost a staggering $3 billion during the 2nd quarter as it increased its loss reserves to more than $8 billion to cover souring loans in its mortgage portfolio.
 
    Wachovia Corp. reported a surprisingly large 2nd-quarter loss Tuesday, deflating Wall Street's hopes that the nation's big banks are weathering the credit crisis well. The bank said it lost $8.86 billion, is slashing its dividend and eliminating 10,750 positions after losses tied to mortgages soared.
 
    It's beginning to look as if Fortis was right. In June the Belgium-Dutch financial giant, itself beset by financial woes, warned, according to a Dutch paper, that the "complete collapse of the US financial markets" was in the offing, just days or weeks away.
 
    Since most banks have no more than 10% of their depositors' funds in cash (the rest has been loaned out), even a small run on the bank could leave a bank with no cash. So what happens if nearly every bank in America is calling on the Federal Deposit Insurance Company (FDIC) to bail them out at the same time?
 
    The industry fully expects a massive run on savings and loans in the very near future. We're talking weeks, if not days. We are now officially on Banking System Deathwatch, ladies and gentlemen, because the next big bank that falls will be the domino that unleashes the runs on the other banks.
    WaMu is certifiably D.O.A. and will almost certainly be the next victim. The industry would be surprised if WaMu makes it another 30 days.
 
    Fears of US bank failures reached a fever pitch not witnessed since 1930 last week.
    What is certain is that more bank failures are likely in the coming months, as the crisis resulting from the bursting of the mortgage bubble works its way through billions of dollars in near worthless or deeply depreciated collateralized mortgage securities held by US financial institutions in their asset portfolios.
    As many as 150 out of the 7,500 banks in the US could fail in the next 12 to 18 months.
 
    The housing bill, which earmarks $300 billion to backstop mortgages after lenders agree to lower mortgage payments, is "a step in the right direction" but "doesn't do enough," Nouriel Roubini, NYU professor and chairman of RGE Monitorhe says, predicting the government will ultimately need to spend more than $1 trillion.
    Roubini's main concern stems from a view that the "housing recession is not bottoming by any standards," in contrast to hopeful comments from Paulson on Fox News and Barron's last weekend.
(Cartoons: Fannie 'n Freddie)
 
    Author Bill Greider explains to Moyers that the magic of the "free market" is coming to a close.
 
Can the bad news for banks get any worse? [Yes!]
    After the last week brought another round of woeful quarterly results from the industry, capped by news on Tuesday of multibillion-dollar losses at the Wachovia Corporation and Washington Mutual, that question is nagging banking executives and their investors.
    Kenneth Lewis, the chief executive of Bank of America, insisted this week that the industry was turning the corner, after his company reported a mere 41% drop in profit.
    But it has now been a year since the credit crisis erupted, and, so far, the optimists have been proven wrong time and again. Skeptics say it could take years for banks to recover from the worst financial crisis since the Depression.
 
    The President of South America's largest economy, Brazil's Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva accused the US and others of making "a true casino" out of their economies. He blamed "the few banks and rich countries that made a true casino of their economies, as was the case of the sub-prime crisis in the United States."
 
    Oil prices continued to fall from record highs this month, as fears eased Hurricane Dolly would hit oil and gas supply and US demand dwindled. A strong session for the dollar also reduced the appeal of commodities, enticing investors to exit oil buying.
 
    Oil prices will hit $300 a barrel in 10 years if the US fails to reduce its dependence on foreign imports, billionaire oil investor T. Boone Pickens told US lawmakers on Tuesday.
 
 
[Latest edition of The Religion WAR]
 
    The contrast between the peaceful cooperation that people are capable of when they are on their own, even under extreme circumstances, and the evil unleashed by misguided state management of society could not be more palpable.
    This is the real message of Batman: The Dark Knight, which, I must say, is one of the most spectacular and profound cinematic explorations of the problem of evil I've ever seen.
 
 

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