Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
Most Americans don't realize it yet, but this Friday, the US Supreme Court will review whether Barack Obama is indeed constitutionally eligible to become the next president.
The justices will hold a conference on the question and consider the case for formal review. If 4 of the 9 justices vote to hear the case in full, oral argument may be scheduled.
Barack Obama, it has been reported, intends to announce Hillary Clinton as his choice for Secretary of State, an appointment America's Founding Fathers forbade in the US Constitution.
The constitutional quandary arises from a clause that forbids members of the Senate from being appointed to civil office, such as the secretary of state, if the "emoluments," or salary and benefits, of the office were increased during the senator's term.
The political bubble is bursting.
Spreads on geo-strategic risk are now widening as dramatically as the spreads on financial risk at the onset of the credit crunch.
The working assumption of the "Great Boom" is – or was – that we live in a benign era where most societies are converging towards some form of market liberalism; where trade and capital flows are unrestricted; where governments have enough legitimacy to keep order by light touch; where a major war is unthinkable. This illusion is now being tested.
If the Indian atrocity now propels the Hindu nationalist leader Narendra Modi into office at the head of a revived Bharatiya Janata Party, south Asia will once again face a nuclear showdown between India and Pakistan.
Events are moving briskly in China too. "Excessive bankruptcies and business closures will cause massive unemployment and stir social unrest."
The regime depends on perpetual boom to stay in power. As the economy sours, there must be a high risk that it will resort to the nationalist card instead.
Tokyo certainly thinks so. "We see [China's] warships in the Sea of Japan all the time." The head of the ruling LDP party was even more explicit. "What happens when China attacks Japan? Will the US retaliate on our behalf?"
As for Europe, it is already fragile. Russia is a hostage to oil prices. If Urals oil stays below $50 a barrel for long, we are going to see an earthquake of one kind or another.
It is too early in this crisis to conclude whether Europe's monetary union is a source stability, or is itself a doomsday machine. The rift between North and South is growing.
The lack of a unified EU treasury has become glaringly clear. Germany has refused to underpin the system with a fiscal blitz.
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