Monday

The Daily WAR (12-01)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
    In an address to the Pontifical Committee for Historical Sciences, Pope Benedict XVI said that the study of history is particularly valuable today, to address "a society which, heedless of its own past and hence lacking criteria acquired through experience, is no longer capable of harmonious coexistence or joint commitment in realizing future aims. Such a society is particularly vulnerable to ideological manipulation."
    He affirmed that the Church takes a keen interest in the study of history, confident that an accurate understanding of past events will vindicate the claims of Christian truth.
 
    Those looking for the fountain of life should look to the Eucharist, the only true source of immortality, says Benedict XVI.
 
    Obedience to the Pope and the magisterium of the Church is just 1 of the themes of the 5 decrees approved by the Jesuits upon concluding its 35th General Congregation. The 2-month meeting of 225 members of the Society of Jesus ended Thursday in Rome.
 
    After 1,500 years the Vatican has brought the 7 deadly sins up to date by adding seven new ones for the age of globalisation. The list, published yesterday in L'Osservatore Romano, the Vatican newspaper, came as the Pope deplored the "decreasing sense of sin" in today's "securalised world" and the falling numbers of Roman Catholics going to confession.
 
    Evangelicals observing Lent? Fasting, and giving up chocolate and favorite pastimes like watching TV during the 40 days before Easter are practices many evangelical Protestants have long rejected as too Catholic and unbiblical.
    But Lent is one of many ancient church practices being embraced by an increasing number of evangelicals, sometimes with a modern twist. Some evangelical churches offer confession and weekly communion. They distribute ashes on Ash Wednesday and light Advent calendars at Christmastime. Others have formed monastic communities.
    Evangelicals -- many of them young -- are adopting a trend that has come to be known as "worship renewal" or "ancient-future worship."
 
 
 
    The Social Democrats are hoping their leader's return to the political stage today, after a 2-week illness, will help refocus the party and scupper speculation about his resignation after last week's debacle in Hesse.
    With the Free Democrats, the CDU's preferred partner, securing 11 seats and the Greens 9, neither of the main blocs could form a majority government. The Left holds the balance with 6 seats.
 
    A massive German rail strike planned for today has been called off thanks to an agreement between train drivers and rail operator Deutsche Bahn. The deal signals the end of an 11-month wage fight.
 
    Dmitry Medvedev's election as Russia's president will not lead to a thaw in the country's difficult relationship with the west, according to Angela Merkel, German chancellor. "I think there will be continuity," Merkel said after meeting Medvedev in Moscow on Saturday. "I do not think that the controversies will just disappear".
 
 
 
    Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi announced Sunday that he was retiring from politics after the upcoming parliamentary elections in mid-April. "I am finished with Italian politics and possibly also with politics in general."
 
    Spanish socialist leader Zapatero won a decisive victory in what was his second general election, increasing his party's vote. However, he did not quite manage to win the absolute majority he had been hoping for.
    The main opposition party, the right-wing Popular Party, also moderately increased their support. The country's multiple small regional nationalist and far-left parties were the main losers.
 
    Barely 9 months into a 5-year term, President Sarkozy is encountering widespread opposition that threatens to grow into a full-scale crisis. His approval rating is collapsing, amid the discrediting of his campaign promises and growing popular resentment of his policies, as well as his ostentatious personal style.
    Bourgeois politicians and the press are increasingly criticizing his demeanor and questioning his fitness to rule. His openly anti-democratic appeals to religion or law and order, are provoking increasing hostility.
 
    The reporting – at least in the German press – raised the impression that last Monday's dinner in Hanover between the Chancellor Merkel and President Sarkozy lead to new peace and love in the German-French couple which has demostrated its very deep divisions recently.
    How credible is this news? First of all, contrary to some media's reporting, it is unlikely, that all disputes over the Mediterranean Union have been buried over dinner. Obviously with the euro quickly approaching $1.55, the pain is also starting to be felt in Germany.
    The new euro appreciation now is probably the single most dangerous development for the economic outlook of the euro-area. What is worse, the recent euro strength also increases tensions between the euro-area countries.
    Export data for Spain and Italy already looks quite dire. Italy is already at the bottom of European growth comparisons. This all carries the danger of a renewed discussion of exit from EMU.
 
    A split within the European Union over abortion continued to shape negotiations at the UN this week during the annual meeting of the Commission at the Status of Women in New York.
 
    The facts about the Lisbon treaty are relatively simple, but the implications are deeply disturbing.
 
    On Feb. 26th, 2008 9/11 Truth was discussed at the EU Parliament in Brussels.
 
    Serbia faces renewed uncertainty today under a caretaker government which will lead the country into its most important election since voters ended the era of the late Slobodan Milosevic.
    Parliament is due to be dissolved this week and a date set for an early parliamentary election, probably on May 11.
 
    By splitting the West and the wider international community, the US-backed declaration of independence by Kosovo has given Russia an opening. Countries concerned with separatist problems of their own, from Spain or Cyprus to China, have been unable to follow the US lead in recognizing Kosovo's breakaway from Serbia. And Russia has sought to exploit the gaps that have emerged as a result.
 
 
 
    The German government today expressed opposition to Israel's plans to build new housing settlements for Israeli citizens in East Jerusalem. Sunday's building programme announcement by the Israeli government was "unacceptable, particularly at the current time."
 
    From Gaza rocket strikes and West Bank riots to a deadly shooting inside Jerusalem late last week, many Palestinians are saying – or perhaps hoping – that these incidents of violence will spark a new, much broader conflict with Israel.
    Those who are encouraging a further escalation say it's overdue."We were implementing what our leaders in the prisons tell us we should be doing. Even Marwan Barghouthi has warned that this is where we're going: the 3rd intifada."
 
    Syria is in the midst of "intensely" arming itself, placing into position rockets and missiles capable of striking the entire Jewish state, according to an assessment presented to the Knesset.
 
    Thousands of Afghan students blocked a highway and threatened attacks on foreign troops on Sunday in the latest protest against the reprinting of a cartoon of the Prophet Mohammad in Danish papers."If our demands are not fullfilled, we will stage more protests and resort to suicide attacks against the foreigners."
 
    A firebrand Pakistani lawyer leading a movement against President Musharraf urged the US and Britain to end their support for the "war on terror" ally.
    "I am at a loss to understand why the US and UK are trying to stitch together alliances to save Musharraf. He is no longer the army chief, he has been rejected by his own people, he is the most unpopular and hated person."
 
 
 
    Qatar's Prime Minister said the best way for Gulf Arab countries to avoid any further military confrontation in the region is to have a dialogue with Iran.
 
    Iran is ready to negotiate with Europe over its nuclear program if there were practical results, the Islamic republic's foreign minister said.
 
    Iran on Sunday told the West it would only hold talks over its disputed nuclear programme if world powers stopped threatening further punitive measures against Tehran. "The time of using the policy of the carrot and the stick has ended. If they (the West) want to have serious negotiations, in fair conditions and taking into account the interests of the 2 parties, they must first stop threatening."
 
    Last Monday, the UN Security Council voted 14-0 with one abstention to impose a fresh set of sanctions against Iran for failing to suspend its civilian nuclear fuel cycle programme.
    Resolution 1803 authorises the US military to inspect all air and sea cargo into and out of Iran on board Iranian vessels if "there are reasonable grounds to believe that the aircraft or vessel is transporting goods prohibited under this resolution."
    It doesn't require much imagination to see how this enabling provision can serve as the trigger for a showdown between the US and Iran.
 
    President Ahmadinejad says the US invaded Iraq to set up a base in a bid to tighten its grip on the Middle East. And he stressed that Tehran is ready to help Washington stop the infiltration of terrorist into Iraq. But whenever the White House makes mistakes and fails, it puts the blame on others, he concluded.
 
    "US elections are an American business. Both the Iranian and the US peoples and also world nations are tired of the warmongering policies of the US government."
 
    On the Iranian issue in particular, there has long been a close relationship between the Israeli and U.S. governments, and the NIE's disclosure set off a flurry of activity in both countries.
    In Washington, various interest groups with hard-line views on Iran and the Middle East have been working vigorously to refocus US and world attention on Iran as an imminent threat. They include Evangelical Christians and conservative Jewish lobbyists -- some with close ties to John McCain.
    Propelled by Tehran's vitriolic words and increasing fears about its intentions, the Israeli government has been ratcheting up its own rhetoric. From an Israeli point of view, it would be far preferable for the international community to do the dirty and dangerous work of defusing what is seen in Israel as a ticking Iranian bomb.
 
Puh-leaze!...
    Israel's Housing Minister has accused the head of the UN nuclear watchdog of acting as an agent for Iran and of allowing the Islamic Republic to proceed with its uranium enrichment without international intervention. "When you examine his behaviour you cannot but reach the conclusion that he is a sort of planted agent ... who has served well the interests of Iran."
 
 
 
 
    The supposed military success in Iraq has been brandished by Senator John McCain as vindication of his prowar stance. Seldom has the official Iraqi and American perception of what is happening in Iraq felt so different from the reality.
    At the end of the day neither Sunni nor Shia Arabs in Iraq want the US to stay. It would be very easy for any of the myriad armed groups in Iraq to launch an offensive and send American military casualties soaring.
    With the rise of al-Sahwa, a powerful Sunni militia, the country is more divided than ever. The Sunni now have their own private army as do the Shia and the Kurds.
    The greatest success of the Surge has been in terms of public relations. Suddenly there is a perception in the US that 'things are getting better in Iraq', though they are better only in terms of the mass killings of 2006.
    In the struggle over who will hold power in Iraq in the future nothing is decided and fighting, just as ferocious as anything we have seen in the past, could erupt at any moment.
 
    Saturday's Democratic caucuses in Wyoming, producing a 7-to-5 victory in terms of delegates garnered by Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, only served to underscore the continued undecided character of the race for the party's presidential nomination and the increasing crisis of the Democratic Party itself.
    Both sides are now pitching their appeal increasingly to the so-called super-delegates, without whose support neither can clinch the nomination. Whatever the final outcome, this increasingly intense political battle is pushing both Democratic candidates sharply to the right.
 
    Human rights organizations, as well as political and social ones, are condemning what they are calling a new form of inhumane exploitation in the United States, where they say a prison population of up to 2 million are working for various industries for a pittance.
    For the tycoons who have invested in the prison industry, it has been like finding a pot of gold. All of their workers are full-time, and never arrive late or are absent; moreover, if they don't like the pay of 25 cents an hour and refuse to work, they are locked up in isolation cells.
    "The private contracting of prisoners for work fosters incentives to lock people up. Prisons depend on this income. Corporate stockholders who make money off prisoners' work lobby for longer sentences, in order to expand their workforce. The system feeds itself," says a study, which accuses the prison industry of being "an imitation of Nazi Germany with respect to forced slave labor and concentration camps."
    The prison industry complex is one of the fastest-growing industries in the US and its investors are on Wall Street.
 
    William Schaap gives expert, informed testimony on the US Government's use of the media to disseminate disinformation via the FBI and CIA.
 
    Today is Commonwealth Day. Not many people know that, or care, it seems. No doubt there are those who consider this to be an anachronism, a hangover of Empire, an embarrassment now we are fully fledged members of the EU. How many of us any longer feel an affinity to the billion or more people who belong to this extraordinary comity of post-colonial nations?
 
    A new history book, Human Smoke: the Beginnings of World War II, the End of Civilisation, is set to cause a stir. Based, it claims, on an exhaustive trawl through the US newspapers of the 1920s and 1930s, it portrays Churchill and, to a lesser extent, Roosevelt as brutal, anti-Semitic warmongers who plunged the world into a conflict that could have been avoided.
    Contemporaneous newspaper reports reveal truths that history books ignore, it argues. The book has only just surfaced in American shops, but a long excerpt was published a few days ago in the Wall Street Journal and the storm clouds are gathering.
 
    A branch of the Freemasons secret society is being formed by members of the Royal Household and police who protect the Royal Family. And their decision to call it The Royal Household Lodge has put them on a collision course with Buckingham Palace.
    Although the Queen's cousin, the Duke of Kent, is head of the secretive organisation – he is Grand Master of the United Grand Lodge of England – the new branch has not gone down well with the Royal Family.
 
 
 
    US average retail gasoline prices have reached a new high of almost $3.20 per gallon and will likely jump another 20-30 cents in the next month, worsening the pain of consumers struggling to make ends meet in an economic downturn.
    Gasoline prices are rising sharply as refiners, who have kept prices down in order to compete for sales, become more willing to pass on their higher costs of crude oil.
 
    Asian stocks tumbled today with Tokyo hitting a 30-month low as recession alarm bells rang louder in the US following a shock drop in employment, dealers said. They said the big worry now is that exports to the US will slump, curbing growth around the region and possibly dragging Japan into recession.
 
    In a bid to rein in inflation Qatar is mulling over dropping riyal's peg to the US dollar as the greenback continues to lose value. Qatar's prime minister expressed hope that the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council member states would adopt a unified stance on the matter.
 
    The dollar weakened against the euro and approached an 8-year low versus the yen as traders bet the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by at least .75% to avert a recession.
 
    Europe's monetary union may be tested to near breaking point as the economic downturn engulfs the bloc's southern tier, and German investors cut off a crucial source of foreign funding, according a hard-hitting report by the Swiss bank UBS.
    UBS warned of a "funding freeze" for countries with very high current account deficits, such as Spain, Portugal, and Greece that have come to rely on in massive inflow of foreign money to plug the gap.
    Much of the funding has come from German banks and pension funds. But the Germans have since brought down the guillotine. The cut-off has left some Spanish borrowers starved of funds. Many have instead turned to the ECB for temporary funding, using unsold mortgage as collateral for loans at the Frankfurt window. This is becoming a political issue.
    What all the southern countries have in common is a relentless loss of competitiveness against Germany, year after year for a decade. UBS said it was unclear how Europe would deal with the likely crisis when it comes. EU rules forbid the ECB to provide liquidity to banks that are "potentially insolvent".
    An IMF study said the "larger countries will end up footing a disproportionately large share of the overall burden". The Germans will not like that.
 
The lessons of German history haunt the single currency
    In the heart of the Money Museum, a shrine to economic rigour in the grounds of the Bundesbank in Frankfurt, a large machine allows visitors to see what would happen if French populists took control of Europe's single currency. The machine shows prices running out of control, warning lights come on and the game ends. "Sorry, but you've failed."
    For anyone seduced by French complaints over an overvalued euro, and the need for the ECB to concentrate more on pursuing growth, the lesson is plain. If you ignore the post-1945 German focus on fighting inflation and pour in easy money, then disaster follows.
    A trip to Frankfurt helps to make sense of the deep divisions that the strong euro has exposed among the 15 EU members of the single currency. Even among Germans too young to remember the D-mark, any hint of political meddling raises fears of unstable prices that have, in the past, destroyed democracy.
 
    Last weeks' news about the Eurogroup meeting and the ECB Board meeting revealed a clear rift between the political leaderships in the eurozone and the European Central Bank. For the first time since the euro started its race for ever new historical heights, all Finance Ministers of the Eurozone agreed to voice unanimous and strong concern about this development.
 
    Turmoil in the credit derivatives markets is having an increasingly brutal impact on the wider financial system as a vicious cycle of forced selling drives risk premiums on company debt to new highs.
    The trend accelerated on both sides of the Atlantic last week as investors rushed to unwind highly leveraged positions in complex structured products. Many investors fear conditions could worsen as hedge funds, banks and other financial institutions come under pressure to cut their losses before conditions deteriorate further.
    Liquidating structured credit instruments requires buying large amounts of protection using credit default swaps. This, in turn, drives the cost of protection higher, potentially triggering a chain reaction.
 
    Whatever Dennis decides to plant this year on his farm, the world needs. Wheat prices have doubled in the past 6 months. Corn is on a tear. Barley, sunflower seeds, canola and soybeans are all up sharply.
    But the prices that have renewed Dennis' faith in farming are causing pain far and wide. Everywhere, the cost of food is rising sharply. Whether the world is in for a long period of continued increases has become one of the most urgent issues in economics.
 
 
 
    Call it another salvo in Bush v. Chavez with Ecuador's Raphael Correa as a secondary target and Colombia's Alvaro Uribe as a proxy aggressor.
    The Ecuadorean incursion was no ordinary cross-border raid. It was a made in Washington affair that escalates a 9-year attempt to remove the Venezuelan leader and return oligarchs in the country to power.
    It also threatens 2 regional leaders who know what they're up against in Uribe and Washington, "friendly" handshakes in the Dominican Republic notwithstanding. The situation is far from settled.
 
    "Each year I take several sabbatical retreats into wilderness country, to find the calmness and serenity that the thin veneer of civilized life cannot provide. The wilderness may be wild and completely without Disneyesque happy endings, but it is not so savage as the atrocities that humanity visits upon itself in the name of various fine sounding philosophies and moralities."
 
Today in Scripture
    "In the 12th year, in the 12th month on the 1st day, the word of YAHWEH came to me..." (Eze 32:1-16)
 
 

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