Tuesday

The Daily WAR (12-02)

Reading between the lines, and thinking outside the box . . .
 
 
 
    Textual analyses of 5 of his most recent Wednesday catechesis, on Saint Augustine. The words that the pope added spontaneously, beyond the written text, are underlined. They're on the themes closest to his heart.
    These words are enough to indicate how Benedict XVI recognizes in himself many traits of this great predecessor, who was a respected advocate of the primacy of Peter and of the bishops of Rome – a primacy that was "necessary then as it is today" – a sure teacher of faith in Christ as true God and true man, in a time of great Christological disputes.
 
    After praying the Angelus Sunday, the Pope again launched an appeal for peace in the Middle East. "I ask everyone, in God's name, to abandon the tortuous paths of hatred and revenge, and responsibly to follow the ways of dialogue and trust."
 
 
 
German press
    After a weekend of chaotic to-ing and fro-ing about whether to form a government with the help of the Left Party, regional Social Democrat leader Andrea Ypsilanti has ended up with the worst of both worlds. She's broken an election promise and won't even get to be governor.
    And media commentators are calling Ypsilanti a power-hungry bully, [and] have heaped criticism on her. The announcement on Monday that she will not try to become governor of Hesse suggests that the attacks have hit home.
 
    Germany's highest court is to decide upon a complaint brought by a German MP against the EU's latest treaty. Peter Gauweiler (Christian Social Union) wants the country's constitutional court to decide on the legality of the Lisbon Treaty. "This treaty weakens democracy in European politics, especially national parliaments' right to have a say," Gauweiler's lawyer said.
    The decision to bring a case to the court may mean that Germany does not approve the treaty in time for it to enter into force by the 1 January 2009 deadline agreed by EU leaders.
 
 
 
    The European Commission is stepping up pressure on those EU governments eager to sign up to a Washington-sponsored set of air security measures in exchange for visa-free travel to the US by saying "no member state will be allowed to violate EU legislation."
    "We will be negotiating with the United States," the EU home affairs commissioner said, adding: "It is simply not possible to abandon, to renounce our EU legislation and our common criteria. We should not allow ourselves be divided. I do not question the right of EU member states to engage in bilateral negotiations on issues that are national prerogative." But he noted that the commission believes: "what the US is asking raises serious legal and political questions."
 
    Russia's delegation to the UN Security Council successfully blocked British and American attempts to thwart a council meeting set for today on Kosovo.
 
    Russia and Europe could be headed for a showdown over independence claims of a breakaway region in Georgia. Russia might be preparing to recognize Abkhazia sovereignty. The EU opposes the move.
 
    Moscow's ambassador to NATO is calling efforts to make Georgia and Ukraine members of the military alliance "a provocation." He argues it would permanently divide Georgia and that the majority of Ukranians are opposed to membership. He also has strong words for the US' planned missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic.
    The attempt by the Americans to "force Georgia into the Western alliance is a provocation that could lead to bloodshed." Ukraine membership, he warned, also threatened to have dramatic consequences.
 
    Chancellor Merkel became the first foreign leader to visit with Vladimir Putin's successor in Moscow on Saturday. But Putin has warned the West not to expect too much of Dmitry Medvedev, saying: "He will represent Russia's national interests."
    Behind closed doors, they discussed international developments, including divergent positions between Berlin and Moscow on Kosovo's declaration of independence, and bilateral issues like the construction of a Baltic Sea pipeline that will bypass Eastern Europe and deliver gas directly to Germany.
 
 
 
    The patriarchs and heads of Churches in Jerusalem appealed for an end to the "infernal cycle" of violence between Israel and the Palestinians that continues to affect the Middle East.
    "Only peace is needed and new ways must be found for the land called to be holy by the Almighty for the Jewish people and for the Palestinians. We pray that God will inspire all of us to submit to his ways in order to reach a comprehensive and just peace with total security for you and for all."
 
    Israel approved plans Sunday to build 330 new homes in a suburban West Bank settlement north of Jerusalem. The move was denounced by the Palestinian Authority as "a slap in the face of the peace process" and called on the Quartet of the US, EU, UN and Russia to "act to get Israel to revoke the decision".
 
    No one mentioned the Gaza Strip. The 8 senior reporters of Bayerischer Rundfunk (Bavarian Broadcasting) sat today facing Israel's ambassador to Germany. They asked him about the special relationship between the 2 countries, the conflict with Hezbollah and Iran's nuclear program. But the latest escalation in the Gaza Strip was not mentioned.
    On this issue, Germany is unusual compared with the media throughout Europe. "We cannot compare the media coverage in Germany to that in Britain or France," the ambassador said. "Israel's position here enjoys greater support than any other country in Europe. Of course, we need to constantly take action to sustain this situation, because it may change."
 
    A senior government official in Jerusalem said the Cabinet was briefed during its weekly meeting by the country's intelligence chiefs on the findings of an annual report produced by Israel's intelligence agencies.
    The report warns of 2 immediate threats to the security of Israel: Iran's nuclear program and the continued firing of rockets at Israeli population centers by Hamas from Gaza. "The main strategic threats are from Iran through its nuclear program and the pivotal role it is playing as a leader of the radical axis in the Arab and Muslim world," the official quoted the annual report as saying.
    Israel sees a clear and present danger coming from the Islamic republic in view of the backing Iran is providing Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza, as well as the strategic alliance Iran has developed with Syria, a country that remains at war with Israel.
 
    Russia told the UN Security Council on Monday that the presence of US Navy warships in the Mediterranean off the coast of Lebanon was not helping resolve the political crisis in Lebanon.
 
    Chancellor Merkel called on NATO members to improve coordination of military and civil elements in crisis areas such as Afghanistan. She stressed that Germany would not lift restrictions on troops in the country.
    The trans-Atlantic alliance is a pillar of Germany's foreign and security policy, but it has to move away from purely military thinking, she told a meeting of German armed forces commanders in Berlin.
 
    Pakistan's political stability is the top priority and a war between the presidency and the newly-elected parliament would be catastrophic, said President Musharraf in an interview.
 
 
 
    Public support for stronger measures, including possible military strikes, to curb or destroy Iran's nuclear program has declined significantly in most countries around the world compared to 18 months ago.
 
 
 
    President Bush says he is sending Vice-President Cheney to the Middle East next week. His trip, which begins on Sunday, will take in Israel, the West Bank, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
    [WAR: McCain will be in Jerusalem on the 18th, but I can't find any info on when Cheney will be there. Will they be there at the same time? Is Iran on the agenda?]
 
    In an interview on CNN Monday morning, Ron Paul says he is unlikely to support John McCain and he left open the possibility of mounting a 3rd-party bid for the White House.
 
    The Bush administration has launched a preliminary legal inquiry that could land Venezuela on the US list of nations that support terrorism, following reports of close Venezuelan links with Colombian rebels, a senior government official has confirmed.
    Experts say adding Venezuela to the list would force US and even foreign firms to sever or curtail links with one of the world's largest oil producers.
 
    FSB reports circulating in the Kremlin point to a much more sinister effort behind the toppling of Governor Spitzer as he had just begun a new probe into Larry Silverstein (owner of the WTC) and the Bush Families Carlyle Group.
    The focus of Governor Spitzer's investigation, these reports state, revolve around the growing crisis embroiling the Carlyle Group as it nears total collapse and is facing insolvency due to Silverstein's withdrawal of over $14 billion from the embattled groups coffers, and which could see the loss to New York States already troubled massive pension fund of over $10 billion.
 
 
 
    The price of crude oil has set a fresh record at $109.20, its 5th day in a row of historic highs. Recent rises are being attributed to the falling value of the US dollar against the Japanese yen and the euro.
    Some investors are buying oil, which is seen keeping its value, to protect themselves against the weaker dollar. Analysts are predicting that the dollar will weaken further if interest rates are cut again on 18 March.
 
    Central banks, including the Bank of England, have announced a latest round of co-ordinated auctions to provide extra liquidity to financial markets. The US Federal Reserve is leading the action, while the European Central Bank, and central banks of Canada and Switzerland are also involved. The aim is to cut the cost of lending between banks, which has been inflated by the credit crunch.
 
    Since the start of the global financial crisis last August, monetary policy has been remarkably ineffective ... borrowing costs for US consumers and companies have actually gone up. For as long as this financial crisis persists, interest rates will be determined by toxic market conditions, not central bankers.
    We may even be in a situation where low interest rates give us the worst of all worlds: no stimulus in the short run, and a rise in inflationary expectations in the long run. What spooks investors is the loud and clear signal from central banks that they are not prepared to stabilise inflation in adverse circumstances.
    This credit crisis is first and foremost a financial solvency crisis. When you are insolvent, the rate of interest is irrelevant because no one will lend you money in any case.
    This has not been a liquidity crisis, but a hugely contagious solvency crisis, affecting sector after sector, starting off with subprime mortgages, spilling over to the rest of the mortgage market, into municipal debt, corporate debt and many obscure sectors of the financial market.
    I suspect we will ultimately end up with some combination of regulatory relief, fiscal bail-outs, nationalisations and many, many bankruptcies of financial institutions not too big to fail.
(Press reviews: Welcome to the meltdown)
 
    Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross says the current market downturn differs from previous slumps in that no American banks have yet failed this time, but he suggests that's about to change. Nor does he think the US economy would recover any time soon.
 
    "We try to be alert to any sort of mega-catastrophe risk, and that posture may make us unduly appreciative about the burgeoning quantities of long-term derivatives contracts and the massive amount of uncollateralized receivables that are growing alongside. In our view, however, derivatives are financial weapons of mass destruction, carrying dangers that, while now latent, are potentially lethal."
    That warning was in Buffett's 2002 letter to Berkshire shareholders. He saw a future that many others chose to ignore. Wall Street didn't listen to Buffett. Derivatives grew into a massive bubble, from about $100 trillion to $516 trillion by 2007.
 
    Carlyle Capital Corp. Ltd., a subsidiary of one of the most influential US private equity funds and closely tied to the Bush family, is in default on several of its securities. Carlyle is an offshore subsidiary of the Washington-based Carlyle Group, one of the most politically powerful private equity firms of the past 2 decades.
    The severity of its liquidity problems indicates that the unfolding financial crisis is taking major parts of the US financial and political elite down with it.
    The fear in the market according to informed reports is that its entire portfolio, recently valued at $21 billion, could be sold off in a distress sale, putting major downward pressure on all mortgage bonds globally.
    A collapse at Carlyle would hit the value of all fixed-income securities, which have already dropped sharply as banks pull back on their lending, and force a new global round of asset sales.
 
    The Irish banking system faces acute strains and may require a phase of temporary nationalisation as the property slump leads to a wave of defaults.
 
    With food prices rising, it is not just the world that is hungry for grain. So are investors. The reason is simple. The sharp increase in the price of commodities has attracted a new breed of investors who sense the opportunity to make a profit. Suddenly pension funds and hedge funds are investing more and more here.
 
    The rush towards biofuels is theatening world food production and the lives of billions of people. "It's very hard to imagine how we can see the world growing enough crops to produce renewable energy and at the same time meet the enormous demand for food. The supply of food really isn't keeping up."
    "The shift to biofuels production has diverted lands out of the food chain. Food prices such as palm oil in Africa are now set at fuel prices. It may be a bonanza for farmers, but in the short term, the world's poorest are hit hard."
 
 
 
 

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